National, regional, and global trends in infertility prevalence since 1990: a systematic analysis of 277 health surveys
Global, regional, and national estimates of prevalence of and tends in infertility are needed to target prevention and treatment efforts. By applying a consistent algorithm to demographic and reproductive surveys available from developed and developing countries, we estimate infertility prevalence a...
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description | Global, regional, and national estimates of prevalence of and tends in infertility are needed to target prevention and treatment efforts. By applying a consistent algorithm to demographic and reproductive surveys available from developed and developing countries, we estimate infertility prevalence and trends, 1990 to 2010, by country and region.
We accessed and analyzed household survey data from 277 demographic and reproductive health surveys using a consistent algorithm to calculate infertility. We used a demographic infertility measure with live birth as the outcome and a 5-y exposure period based on union status, contraceptive use, and desire for a child. We corrected for biases arising from the use of incomplete information on past union status and contraceptive use. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate prevalence of and trends in infertility in 190 countries and territories. In 2010, among women 20-44 y of age who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 1.9% (95% uncertainty interval 1.7%, 2.2%) were unable to attain a live birth (primary infertility). Out of women who had had at least one live birth and were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 10.5% (9.5%, 11.7%) were unable to have another child (secondary infertility). Infertility prevalence was highest in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa/Middle East, and Central/Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Levels of infertility in 2010 were similar to those in 1990 in most world regions, apart from declines in primary and secondary infertility in Sub-Saharan Africa and primary infertility in South Asia (posterior probability [pp] ≥0.99). Although there were no statistically significant changes in the prevalence of infertility in most regions amongst women who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, reduced child-seeking behavior resulted in a reduction of primary infertility among all women from 1.6% to 1.5% (pp=0.90) and a reduction of secondary infertility among all women from 3.9% to 3.0% (pp>0.99) from 1990 to 2010. Due to population growth, however, the absolute number of couples affected by infertility increased from 42.0 million (39.6 million, 44.8 million) in 1990 to 48.5 million (45.0 million, 52.6 million) in 2010. Limitations of the study include gaps in survey data for some countries and the use of proxies to determine exposure to pregnancy.
We analyzed demographic and reproductive household survey data to reveal global patterns and trends in infertility. Independent from pop |
doi_str_mv | 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001356 |
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We accessed and analyzed household survey data from 277 demographic and reproductive health surveys using a consistent algorithm to calculate infertility. We used a demographic infertility measure with live birth as the outcome and a 5-y exposure period based on union status, contraceptive use, and desire for a child. We corrected for biases arising from the use of incomplete information on past union status and contraceptive use. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate prevalence of and trends in infertility in 190 countries and territories. In 2010, among women 20-44 y of age who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 1.9% (95% uncertainty interval 1.7%, 2.2%) were unable to attain a live birth (primary infertility). Out of women who had had at least one live birth and were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 10.5% (9.5%, 11.7%) were unable to have another child (secondary infertility). Infertility prevalence was highest in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa/Middle East, and Central/Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Levels of infertility in 2010 were similar to those in 1990 in most world regions, apart from declines in primary and secondary infertility in Sub-Saharan Africa and primary infertility in South Asia (posterior probability [pp] ≥0.99). Although there were no statistically significant changes in the prevalence of infertility in most regions amongst women who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, reduced child-seeking behavior resulted in a reduction of primary infertility among all women from 1.6% to 1.5% (pp=0.90) and a reduction of secondary infertility among all women from 3.9% to 3.0% (pp>0.99) from 1990 to 2010. Due to population growth, however, the absolute number of couples affected by infertility increased from 42.0 million (39.6 million, 44.8 million) in 1990 to 48.5 million (45.0 million, 52.6 million) in 2010. Limitations of the study include gaps in survey data for some countries and the use of proxies to determine exposure to pregnancy.
We analyzed demographic and reproductive household survey data to reveal global patterns and trends in infertility. Independent from population growth and worldwide declines in the preferred number of children, we found little evidence of changes in infertility over two decades, apart from in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Further research is needed to identify the etiological causes of these patterns and trends.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1549-1676</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1549-1277</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1549-1676</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001356</identifier><identifier>PMID: 23271957</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Abortion ; Adult ; Africa - epidemiology ; Algorithms ; Americas - epidemiology ; Asia - epidemiology ; Bayes Theorem ; Children & youth ; Couples ; Europe - epidemiology ; Female ; Forecasts and trends ; Global Health - trends ; Health Surveys - statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Infections ; Infertility ; Infertility - epidemiology ; Live Birth - epidemiology ; Medicine ; Oceania - epidemiology ; Population growth ; Pregnancy ; Prevalence ; Prevalence studies (Epidemiology) ; R&D ; Reproductive health ; Research & development ; Statistics ; Studies ; System design ; Systems analysis ; Trends ; Womens health ; Young Adult</subject><ispartof>PLoS medicine, 2012-12, Vol.9 (12), p.e1001356-e1001356</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2012 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2012 Mascarenhas et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited: Mascarenhas MN, Flaxman SR, Boerma T, Vanderpoel S, Stevens GA (2012) National, Regional, and Global Trends in Infertility Prevalence Since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of 277 Health Surveys. PLoS Med 9(12): e1001356. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001356</rights><rights>2012 Mascarenhas et al 2012 Mascarenhas et al</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c830t-e23688765a415b6c92bda64e830fca868a7ab2a0fd44e686ee433c93b5269e2e3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c830t-e23688765a415b6c92bda64e830fca868a7ab2a0fd44e686ee433c93b5269e2e3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3525527/pdf/$$EPDF$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3525527/$$EHTML$$P50$$Gpubmedcentral$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,864,885,2102,2928,23866,27924,27925,53791,53793</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23271957$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Low, Nicola</contributor><creatorcontrib>Mascarenhas, Maya N</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Flaxman, Seth R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boerma, Ties</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vanderpoel, Sheryl</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stevens, Gretchen A</creatorcontrib><title>National, regional, and global trends in infertility prevalence since 1990: a systematic analysis of 277 health surveys</title><title>PLoS medicine</title><addtitle>PLoS Med</addtitle><description>Global, regional, and national estimates of prevalence of and tends in infertility are needed to target prevention and treatment efforts. By applying a consistent algorithm to demographic and reproductive surveys available from developed and developing countries, we estimate infertility prevalence and trends, 1990 to 2010, by country and region.
We accessed and analyzed household survey data from 277 demographic and reproductive health surveys using a consistent algorithm to calculate infertility. We used a demographic infertility measure with live birth as the outcome and a 5-y exposure period based on union status, contraceptive use, and desire for a child. We corrected for biases arising from the use of incomplete information on past union status and contraceptive use. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate prevalence of and trends in infertility in 190 countries and territories. In 2010, among women 20-44 y of age who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 1.9% (95% uncertainty interval 1.7%, 2.2%) were unable to attain a live birth (primary infertility). Out of women who had had at least one live birth and were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 10.5% (9.5%, 11.7%) were unable to have another child (secondary infertility). Infertility prevalence was highest in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa/Middle East, and Central/Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Levels of infertility in 2010 were similar to those in 1990 in most world regions, apart from declines in primary and secondary infertility in Sub-Saharan Africa and primary infertility in South Asia (posterior probability [pp] ≥0.99). Although there were no statistically significant changes in the prevalence of infertility in most regions amongst women who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, reduced child-seeking behavior resulted in a reduction of primary infertility among all women from 1.6% to 1.5% (pp=0.90) and a reduction of secondary infertility among all women from 3.9% to 3.0% (pp>0.99) from 1990 to 2010. Due to population growth, however, the absolute number of couples affected by infertility increased from 42.0 million (39.6 million, 44.8 million) in 1990 to 48.5 million (45.0 million, 52.6 million) in 2010. Limitations of the study include gaps in survey data for some countries and the use of proxies to determine exposure to pregnancy.
We analyzed demographic and reproductive household survey data to reveal global patterns and trends in infertility. Independent from population growth and worldwide declines in the preferred number of children, we found little evidence of changes in infertility over two decades, apart from in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Further research is needed to identify the etiological causes of these patterns and trends.</description><subject>Abortion</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Africa - epidemiology</subject><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Americas - epidemiology</subject><subject>Asia - epidemiology</subject><subject>Bayes Theorem</subject><subject>Children & youth</subject><subject>Couples</subject><subject>Europe - epidemiology</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Forecasts and trends</subject><subject>Global Health - trends</subject><subject>Health Surveys - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Infertility</subject><subject>Infertility - epidemiology</subject><subject>Live Birth - epidemiology</subject><subject>Medicine</subject><subject>Oceania - epidemiology</subject><subject>Population growth</subject><subject>Pregnancy</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)</subject><subject>R&D</subject><subject>Reproductive health</subject><subject>Research & development</subject><subject>Statistics</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>System design</subject><subject>Systems analysis</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Womens health</subject><subject>Young Adult</subject><issn>1549-1676</issn><issn>1549-1277</issn><issn>1549-1676</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2012</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNqVk2uL1DAUhoso7rr6D0QLgig4Y669-EFYFi8Dyy54-xpO09NOh0wzm7Sj8-9Nne4ylfmgtLQhec6bk_PmRNFTSuaUp_TtyvauBTPfrLGcU0Iol8m96JRKkc9okib3D8Yn0SPvV4SwnOTkYXTCOEtpLtPT6OcVdI0NOm9ih_U4graMa2MLMHHnsC193LThrdB1jWm6XbxxuAWDrcbYN8OX5jl5F0Psd77DdZDUQQTMzjc-tlXM0jReIphuGfvebXHnH0cPKjAen4z_s-j7xw_fLj7PLq8_LS7OL2c646SbIeNJlqWJBEFlkeicFSUkAsNipSFLMkihYECqUghMsgRRcK5zXkiW5MiQn0XP97obY70aa-YVZVlG8lAeEYjFnigtrNTGNWtwO2WhUX8mrKsVhHNrg0pL0BXLqyDMRC5DAkwKmRBIORElQNB6P-7WF8EWjW3nwExEpytts1S13SoumZQsDQKvRgFnb3r0nVo3XqMx0KLth7zT4L0UPAvoi7_Q46cbqTr4pYKHNuyrB1F1zqkQgxIJ1OwIVWOLIUnbYtWE6Qk_P8KHp8R1o48GvJ4EBKbDX10Nvfdq8fXLf7BX_85e_5iyLw_Y_XX01vTD_fdTUOxB7az3Dqs7AylRQ-_dVloNvafG3gthzw7Nvwu6bTb-GxTDJ0Y</recordid><startdate>20121201</startdate><enddate>20121201</enddate><creator>Mascarenhas, Maya N</creator><creator>Flaxman, Seth R</creator><creator>Boerma, Ties</creator><creator>Vanderpoel, Sheryl</creator><creator>Stevens, Gretchen A</creator><general>Public Library of Science</general><general>Public Library of Science (PLoS)</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>IOV</scope><scope>ISN</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope><scope>CZK</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20121201</creationdate><title>National, regional, and global trends in infertility prevalence since 1990: a systematic analysis of 277 health surveys</title><author>Mascarenhas, Maya N ; Flaxman, Seth R ; Boerma, Ties ; Vanderpoel, Sheryl ; Stevens, Gretchen A</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c830t-e23688765a415b6c92bda64e830fca868a7ab2a0fd44e686ee433c93b5269e2e3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2012</creationdate><topic>Abortion</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Africa - epidemiology</topic><topic>Algorithms</topic><topic>Americas - epidemiology</topic><topic>Asia - epidemiology</topic><topic>Bayes Theorem</topic><topic>Children & youth</topic><topic>Couples</topic><topic>Europe - epidemiology</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Forecasts and trends</topic><topic>Global Health - trends</topic><topic>Health Surveys - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infections</topic><topic>Infertility</topic><topic>Infertility - epidemiology</topic><topic>Live Birth - epidemiology</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Oceania - epidemiology</topic><topic>Population growth</topic><topic>Pregnancy</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)</topic><topic>R&D</topic><topic>Reproductive health</topic><topic>Research & development</topic><topic>Statistics</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>System design</topic><topic>Systems analysis</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Womens health</topic><topic>Young Adult</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Mascarenhas, Maya N</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Flaxman, Seth R</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Boerma, Ties</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vanderpoel, Sheryl</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Stevens, Gretchen A</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Opposing Viewpoints</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Canada</collection><collection>Gale In Context: Science</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><collection>PLoS Medicine</collection><jtitle>PLoS medicine</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Mascarenhas, Maya N</au><au>Flaxman, Seth R</au><au>Boerma, Ties</au><au>Vanderpoel, Sheryl</au><au>Stevens, Gretchen A</au><au>Low, Nicola</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>National, regional, and global trends in infertility prevalence since 1990: a systematic analysis of 277 health surveys</atitle><jtitle>PLoS medicine</jtitle><addtitle>PLoS Med</addtitle><date>2012-12-01</date><risdate>2012</risdate><volume>9</volume><issue>12</issue><spage>e1001356</spage><epage>e1001356</epage><pages>e1001356-e1001356</pages><issn>1549-1676</issn><issn>1549-1277</issn><eissn>1549-1676</eissn><abstract>Global, regional, and national estimates of prevalence of and tends in infertility are needed to target prevention and treatment efforts. By applying a consistent algorithm to demographic and reproductive surveys available from developed and developing countries, we estimate infertility prevalence and trends, 1990 to 2010, by country and region.
We accessed and analyzed household survey data from 277 demographic and reproductive health surveys using a consistent algorithm to calculate infertility. We used a demographic infertility measure with live birth as the outcome and a 5-y exposure period based on union status, contraceptive use, and desire for a child. We corrected for biases arising from the use of incomplete information on past union status and contraceptive use. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate prevalence of and trends in infertility in 190 countries and territories. In 2010, among women 20-44 y of age who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 1.9% (95% uncertainty interval 1.7%, 2.2%) were unable to attain a live birth (primary infertility). Out of women who had had at least one live birth and were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 10.5% (9.5%, 11.7%) were unable to have another child (secondary infertility). Infertility prevalence was highest in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa/Middle East, and Central/Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Levels of infertility in 2010 were similar to those in 1990 in most world regions, apart from declines in primary and secondary infertility in Sub-Saharan Africa and primary infertility in South Asia (posterior probability [pp] ≥0.99). Although there were no statistically significant changes in the prevalence of infertility in most regions amongst women who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, reduced child-seeking behavior resulted in a reduction of primary infertility among all women from 1.6% to 1.5% (pp=0.90) and a reduction of secondary infertility among all women from 3.9% to 3.0% (pp>0.99) from 1990 to 2010. Due to population growth, however, the absolute number of couples affected by infertility increased from 42.0 million (39.6 million, 44.8 million) in 1990 to 48.5 million (45.0 million, 52.6 million) in 2010. Limitations of the study include gaps in survey data for some countries and the use of proxies to determine exposure to pregnancy.
We analyzed demographic and reproductive household survey data to reveal global patterns and trends in infertility. Independent from population growth and worldwide declines in the preferred number of children, we found little evidence of changes in infertility over two decades, apart from in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Further research is needed to identify the etiological causes of these patterns and trends.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>23271957</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pmed.1001356</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Abortion Adult Africa - epidemiology Algorithms Americas - epidemiology Asia - epidemiology Bayes Theorem Children & youth Couples Europe - epidemiology Female Forecasts and trends Global Health - trends Health Surveys - statistics & numerical data Humans Infections Infertility Infertility - epidemiology Live Birth - epidemiology Medicine Oceania - epidemiology Population growth Pregnancy Prevalence Prevalence studies (Epidemiology) R&D Reproductive health Research & development Statistics Studies System design Systems analysis Trends Womens health Young Adult |
title | National, regional, and global trends in infertility prevalence since 1990: a systematic analysis of 277 health surveys |
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