Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia
Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 198...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climate dynamics 2024-09, Vol.62 (9), p.9361-9375 |
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| creator | Rashid, Irfan Ur Abid, Muhammad Adnan Osman, Marisol Kucharski, Fred Ashfaq, Moetasim Weisheimer, Antje Almazroui, Mansour Torres-Alavez, José Abraham Afzaal, Muhammad |
| description | Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5 |
| format | Article |
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The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0930-7575</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1432-0894</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Air temperature ; Climatology ; data collection ; Datasets ; Dynamic height ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; ECMWF-SEAS5 ; El Nino ; El Nino phenomena ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event ; ENSO ; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Geopotential ; Geopotential height ; Heat waves ; Heatwaves ; Height anomalies ; Initial conditions ; Interannual oscillation ; Interannual variability ; La Nina ; Medium-range forecasting ; Oceanography ; Original Article ; predictability ; prediction ; Predictions ; South Asia ; Southern Oscillation ; Spatial discrimination ; Spatial resolution ; Summer ; Surface temperature ; Surface-air temperature relationships ; temperature variability ; Variability ; Weather forecasting ; WSA</subject><ispartof>Climate dynamics, 2024-09, Vol.62 (9), p.9361-9375</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2024</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2024. 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The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. 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| subjects | Air temperature Climatology data collection Datasets Dynamic height Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences ECMWF-SEAS5 El Nino El Nino phenomena El Nino-Southern Oscillation event ENSO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Geophysics/Geodesy Geopotential Geopotential height Heat waves Heatwaves Height anomalies Initial conditions Interannual oscillation Interannual variability La Nina Medium-range forecasting Oceanography Original Article predictability prediction Predictions South Asia Southern Oscillation Spatial discrimination Spatial resolution Summer Surface temperature Surface-air temperature relationships temperature variability Variability Weather forecasting WSA |
| title | Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia |
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