Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model
This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating f...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2018-02, Vol.146 (3-4), p.547-560 |
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| creator | Bacmeister, Julio T. Reed, Kevin A. Hannay, Cecile Lawrence, Peter Bates, Susan Truesdale, John E. Rosenbloom, Nan Levy, Michael |
| description | This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a
reduction
in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x |
| format | Article |
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reduction
in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0165-0009</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1480</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Atmospheric models ; Atmospheric Sciences ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; Cyclones ; Cyclonic activity ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Extreme weather ; Global warming ; Hurricanes ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Mitigation ; Precipitation ; Reduction ; Resolution ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Storms ; Surface temperature ; Tropical climate ; Tropical cyclone activity ; Tropical cyclones ; Uncertainty</subject><ispartof>Climatic change, 2018-02, Vol.146 (3-4), p.547-560</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016</rights><rights>Climatic Change is a copyright of Springer, (2016). All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c479t-450c0ee1f168014784262b5c8ebd7502737104fa00e0e26aab99b837bf6b51353</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c479t-450c0ee1f168014784262b5c8ebd7502737104fa00e0e26aab99b837bf6b51353</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.osti.gov/biblio/1537737$$D View this record in Osti.gov$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Bacmeister, Julio T.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reed, Kevin A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hannay, Cecile</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lawrence, Peter</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bates, Susan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Truesdale, John E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rosenbloom, Nan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Levy, Michael</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)</creatorcontrib><title>Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model</title><title>Climatic change</title><addtitle>Climatic Change</addtitle><description>This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a
reduction
in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.</description><subject>Atmospheric models</subject><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Cyclonic activity</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental Sciences & Ecology</subject><subject>Extreme weather</subject><subject>Global warming</subject><subject>Hurricanes</subject><subject>Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Mitigation</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Reduction</subject><subject>Resolution</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Storms</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Tropical climate</subject><subject>Tropical cyclone activity</subject><subject>Tropical cyclones</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><issn>0165-0009</issn><issn>1573-1480</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kUtPxCAUhYnRxPHxA9wRXaOXtpR2aSa-EhNd6JpQ5naGSQdGoOr8e5nUxJUrIHzn5J57CLngcM0B5E3kIJqKAa8ZlwLY9wGZcSFLxqsGDsksfwgGAO0xOYlxvb_Jop6R-Br8Gk3CBTUr7ZYYqXU0Bb-1Rg_U7MzgHVJtkv20aUdHt8BA-zGNAemXDhvrljQadDpYH-kY929NV3a5YgGjH8ZkvaNmsBudkG78AoczctTrIeL573lK3u_v3uaP7Pnl4Wl--8xMJdvEKgEGEHnP6wZ4JZuqqItOmAa7RY5YyFJyqHoNgIBFrXXXtl1Tyq6vO8FLUZ6Sy8nXx2RVNDahWRnvXM6ruChldsjQ1QRtg_8YMSa19mNweS5VABS8KUVbZopPlAk-xoC92oacKOwUB7UvQE0FqLxntS9AfWdNMWliZvNmw5_z_6Iffi6J6g</recordid><startdate>20180201</startdate><enddate>20180201</enddate><creator>Bacmeister, Julio T.</creator><creator>Reed, Kevin A.</creator><creator>Hannay, Cecile</creator><creator>Lawrence, 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Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Bacmeister, Julio T.</au><au>Reed, Kevin A.</au><au>Hannay, Cecile</au><au>Lawrence, Peter</au><au>Bates, Susan</au><au>Truesdale, John E.</au><au>Rosenbloom, Nan</au><au>Levy, Michael</au><aucorp>University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model</atitle><jtitle>Climatic change</jtitle><stitle>Climatic Change</stitle><date>2018-02-01</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>146</volume><issue>3-4</issue><spage>547</spage><epage>560</epage><pages>547-560</pages><issn>0165-0009</issn><eissn>1573-1480</eissn><abstract>This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a
reduction
in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x</doi><tpages>14</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Atmospheric models Atmospheric Sciences Climate Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Cyclones Cyclonic activity Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology Extreme weather Global warming Hurricanes Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Mitigation Precipitation Reduction Resolution Sea surface Sea surface temperature Storms Surface temperature Tropical climate Tropical cyclone activity Tropical cyclones Uncertainty |
| title | Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model |
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