Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America
This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fr...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2015-09, Vol.42 (17), p.7179-7186 |
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| creator | Gao, Yang Lu, Jian Leung, L. Ruby Yang, Qing Hagos, Samson Qian, Yun |
| description | This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fractional increases between 50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super‐Clausius‐Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.
Key Points
Atmospheric river events increase in the future
Increase in moisture contributes largely to AR changes
Dynamical effects counter the thermodynamical changes |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/2015GL065435 |
| format | Article |
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Key Points
Atmospheric river events increase in the future
Increase in moisture contributes largely to AR changes
Dynamical effects counter the thermodynamical changes</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065435</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Americas ; atmospheric rivers ; Atmospheric water ; Atmospherics ; Basins ; climate change ; Constraining ; dynamical effects ; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; increased moisture ; Meteorology ; Modulation ; Moisture ; Rivers ; thermodynamic effects ; Water vapor</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2015-09, Vol.42 (17), p.7179-7186</ispartof><rights>2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c6118-720598477e3e7f5a6ae94de6f416d733c3bba28b81280eec531e524ec81eb21b3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c6118-720598477e3e7f5a6ae94de6f416d733c3bba28b81280eec531e524ec81eb21b3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2F2015GL065435$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2F2015GL065435$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,1411,1427,11493,27901,27902,45550,45551,46384,46443,46808,46867</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1224503$$D View this record in Osti.gov$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Gao, Yang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lu, Jian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leung, L. Ruby</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Qing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hagos, Samson</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Qian, Yun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)</creatorcontrib><title>Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><addtitle>Geophys. Res. Lett</addtitle><description>This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fractional increases between 50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super‐Clausius‐Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.
Key Points
Atmospheric river events increase in the future
Increase in moisture contributes largely to AR changes
Dynamical effects counter the thermodynamical changes</description><subject>Americas</subject><subject>atmospheric rivers</subject><subject>Atmospheric water</subject><subject>Atmospherics</subject><subject>Basins</subject><subject>climate change</subject><subject>Constraining</subject><subject>dynamical effects</subject><subject>ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES</subject><subject>increased moisture</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Modulation</subject><subject>Moisture</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>thermodynamic effects</subject><subject>Water vapor</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqN0c1u1DAQAOAIgcRSeuMBLLhwIDC249g5lgJbpKX8CERvluOddF0Se2snbfft61VQVfWAuNij0TejGU1RvKDwlgKwdwyoWK6gFhUXj4oFbaqqVADycbEAaHLMZP20eJbSBQBw4HRR3HzYeTM4a3pi_JqMG4xDWN_lcjz1ZnTBJxI86aZxikjsxvhzzJmO9LmqM33v_Dkx4xDSNndwlkR3hTGL_JJrTCNGT05DHDfkaNgD87x4kusSHv79D4pfnz7-PD4pV1-Xn4-PVqWtKVWlZCAaVUmJHGUnTG2wqdZYdxWt15Jzy9vWMNUqyhQgWsEpClahVRRbRlt-ULyc-4Y0Op2sG9FubPAe7agpY5UAntHrGW1juJzyuHpwyWKft8MwJU1lzUAKquA_KGeKQiNUpq8e0IswRZ-3zYoqLlgj66zezMrGkFLETm-jG0zcaQp6f1Z9_6yZs5lfux53_7R6-WMlOFf7Scq5yOVL3NwVmfhH15JLoX-fLvV7-eX7tzN-piW_Be04sqU</recordid><startdate>20150916</startdate><enddate>20150916</enddate><creator>Gao, Yang</creator><creator>Lu, Jian</creator><creator>Leung, L. Ruby</creator><creator>Yang, Qing</creator><creator>Hagos, Samson</creator><creator>Qian, Yun</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>American Geophysical Union</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>OIOZB</scope><scope>OTOTI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20150916</creationdate><title>Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America</title><author>Gao, Yang ; Lu, Jian ; Leung, L. Ruby ; Yang, Qing ; Hagos, Samson ; Qian, Yun</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c6118-720598477e3e7f5a6ae94de6f416d733c3bba28b81280eec531e524ec81eb21b3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>Americas</topic><topic>atmospheric rivers</topic><topic>Atmospheric water</topic><topic>Atmospherics</topic><topic>Basins</topic><topic>climate change</topic><topic>Constraining</topic><topic>dynamical effects</topic><topic>ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES</topic><topic>increased moisture</topic><topic>Meteorology</topic><topic>Modulation</topic><topic>Moisture</topic><topic>Rivers</topic><topic>thermodynamic effects</topic><topic>Water vapor</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Gao, Yang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lu, Jian</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Leung, L. Ruby</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yang, Qing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hagos, Samson</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Qian, Yun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>OSTI.GOV - Hybrid</collection><collection>OSTI.GOV</collection><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Gao, Yang</au><au>Lu, Jian</au><au>Leung, L. Ruby</au><au>Yang, Qing</au><au>Hagos, Samson</au><au>Qian, Yun</au><aucorp>Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><addtitle>Geophys. Res. Lett</addtitle><date>2015-09-16</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>42</volume><issue>17</issue><spage>7179</spage><epage>7186</epage><pages>7179-7186</pages><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><abstract>This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fractional increases between 50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super‐Clausius‐Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.
Key Points
Atmospheric river events increase in the future
Increase in moisture contributes largely to AR changes
Dynamical effects counter the thermodynamical changes</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1002/2015GL065435</doi><tpages>8</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Geophysical research letters, 2015-09, Vol.42 (17), p.7179-7186 |
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| source | Wiley-Blackwell Journals; Wiley-Blackwell Open Access Backfiles (Open Access); Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Archive; EZB Electronic Journals Library |
| subjects | Americas atmospheric rivers Atmospheric water Atmospherics Basins climate change Constraining dynamical effects ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES increased moisture Meteorology Modulation Moisture Rivers thermodynamic effects Water vapor |
| title | Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America |
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