Drought in South America: April 2023 : GDO analytical report

Multi-annual precipitation deficits combined with above-average temperatures and a sequence of heatwaves are the cause of the long-running and extensive drought in central-southern South America. From August 2022 to March 2023 the drought has diminished in Brazil and moved southwards, now affecting mainly northern Argentina and Uruguay. Hydrology and vegetation are severely affected by the drought, with impacts on crops, rivers flow and energy production. Widespread impacts due to the drought can be linked to the estimated 3% GDP reduction in 2023 in Argentina. After three years of La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific Ocean has entered neutral ENSO conditions and a transition to an El Niño phase is forecasted for the coming months. Seasonal forecasts point to warmer temperatures, close to average precipitation and lower than average river flows.