International Financial Adjustment
We explore the implications of a country’s external constraint for the dynamics of net foreign assets, returns, and exchange rates. Deteriorations in external accounts imply future trade surpluses (trade channel) or excess returns on the net foreign portfolio (valuation channel). Using a new data se...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | The Journal of political economy 2007-08, Vol.115 (4), p.665-703 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 703 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 4 |
| container_start_page | 665 |
| container_title | The Journal of political economy |
| container_volume | 115 |
| creator | Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier Rey, Hélène |
| description | We explore the implications of a country’s external constraint for the dynamics of net foreign assets, returns, and exchange rates. Deteriorations in external accounts imply future trade surpluses (trade channel) or excess returns on the net foreign portfolio (valuation channel). Using a new data set on U.S. gross external positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute 27 percent of the cyclical external adjustment. Our approach has asset‐pricing implications: external imbalances predict net foreign portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net export growth at longer horizons. The exchange rate is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1086/521966 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>jstor_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_jstor_primary_4498899</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><jstor_id>10.1086/521966</jstor_id><sourcerecordid>10.1086/521966</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c425t-29eb9ab2c53a297ce61c8f32465d66939bb295d8bfb49b7995cc7cf9c82fc1fb3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNpdkE1LAzEURYMoWKv-AhdSxN1ovidvWUqrhYIbBXdDkmZ0hmlSk8zCf-_ISAvezbuLw4F3Ebom-IFgJR8FJSDlCZoQwcpCMP5-iiYYU1owhdU5ukipxUMIZhM0W_vsote5CV53t6vGa2-boc23bZ_yzvl8ic5q3SV39Xen6G21fF08F5uXp_VivikspyIXFJwBbagVTFMorZPEqppRLsVWSmBgDAWxVaY2HEwJIKwtbQ1W0dqS2rApuh-9-xi-epdytWuSdV2nvQt9qpgsOWaAB3D2D2xDP_zQpYqA4IyVXBxtNoaUoqurfWx2On5XBFe_O1XjTgN4N4K9_Wys_gj76FI6Kg_YzYi1KYd4kHEOSgGwH_Z4boE</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>195433745</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>International Financial Adjustment</title><source>Jstor Complete Legacy</source><source>University of Chicago Press Journals</source><source>Business Source Complete</source><creator>Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier ; Rey, Hélène</creator><creatorcontrib>Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier ; Rey, Hélène</creatorcontrib><description>We explore the implications of a country’s external constraint for the dynamics of net foreign assets, returns, and exchange rates. Deteriorations in external accounts imply future trade surpluses (trade channel) or excess returns on the net foreign portfolio (valuation channel). Using a new data set on U.S. gross external positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute 27 percent of the cyclical external adjustment. Our approach has asset‐pricing implications: external imbalances predict net foreign portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net export growth at longer horizons. The exchange rate is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0022-3808</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1537-534X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1086/521966</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JLPEAR</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Chicago: The University of Chicago Press</publisher><subject>Balance of payments ; Balance of trade ; Depreciation ; Determinism ; Economic fluctuations ; Economic theory ; Exchange rates ; Foreign assets ; Foreign exchange ; Foreign exchange rates ; Imports ; International monetary economics ; Mathematical models ; Monetary reserves ; Net exports ; Political economy ; Portfolio performance ; Predictability ; Statistical analysis ; Studies ; Trade flows ; U.S.A ; Wealth</subject><ispartof>The Journal of political economy, 2007-08, Vol.115 (4), p.665-703</ispartof><rights>2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.</rights><rights>Copyright University of Chicago, acting through its Press Aug 2007</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c425t-29eb9ab2c53a297ce61c8f32465d66939bb295d8bfb49b7995cc7cf9c82fc1fb3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c425t-29eb9ab2c53a297ce61c8f32465d66939bb295d8bfb49b7995cc7cf9c82fc1fb3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086%2F521966$$EPDF$$P50$$Guchicagopress$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086%2F521966$$EHTML$$P50$$Guchicagopress$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,803,27924,27925,54019,54023</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rey, Hélène</creatorcontrib><title>International Financial Adjustment</title><title>The Journal of political economy</title><description>We explore the implications of a country’s external constraint for the dynamics of net foreign assets, returns, and exchange rates. Deteriorations in external accounts imply future trade surpluses (trade channel) or excess returns on the net foreign portfolio (valuation channel). Using a new data set on U.S. gross external positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute 27 percent of the cyclical external adjustment. Our approach has asset‐pricing implications: external imbalances predict net foreign portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net export growth at longer horizons. The exchange rate is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond.</description><subject>Balance of payments</subject><subject>Balance of trade</subject><subject>Depreciation</subject><subject>Determinism</subject><subject>Economic fluctuations</subject><subject>Economic theory</subject><subject>Exchange rates</subject><subject>Foreign assets</subject><subject>Foreign exchange</subject><subject>Foreign exchange rates</subject><subject>Imports</subject><subject>International monetary economics</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Monetary reserves</subject><subject>Net exports</subject><subject>Political economy</subject><subject>Portfolio performance</subject><subject>Predictability</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Trade flows</subject><subject>U.S.A</subject><subject>Wealth</subject><issn>0022-3808</issn><issn>1537-534X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2007</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNpdkE1LAzEURYMoWKv-AhdSxN1ovidvWUqrhYIbBXdDkmZ0hmlSk8zCf-_ISAvezbuLw4F3Ebom-IFgJR8FJSDlCZoQwcpCMP5-iiYYU1owhdU5ukipxUMIZhM0W_vsote5CV53t6vGa2-boc23bZ_yzvl8ic5q3SV39Xen6G21fF08F5uXp_VivikspyIXFJwBbagVTFMorZPEqppRLsVWSmBgDAWxVaY2HEwJIKwtbQ1W0dqS2rApuh-9-xi-epdytWuSdV2nvQt9qpgsOWaAB3D2D2xDP_zQpYqA4IyVXBxtNoaUoqurfWx2On5XBFe_O1XjTgN4N4K9_Wys_gj76FI6Kg_YzYi1KYd4kHEOSgGwH_Z4boE</recordid><startdate>20070801</startdate><enddate>20070801</enddate><creator>Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier</creator><creator>Rey, Hélène</creator><general>The University of Chicago Press</general><general>University of Chicago, acting through its Press</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20070801</creationdate><title>International Financial Adjustment</title><author>Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier ; Rey, Hélène</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c425t-29eb9ab2c53a297ce61c8f32465d66939bb295d8bfb49b7995cc7cf9c82fc1fb3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2007</creationdate><topic>Balance of payments</topic><topic>Balance of trade</topic><topic>Depreciation</topic><topic>Determinism</topic><topic>Economic fluctuations</topic><topic>Economic theory</topic><topic>Exchange rates</topic><topic>Foreign assets</topic><topic>Foreign exchange</topic><topic>Foreign exchange rates</topic><topic>Imports</topic><topic>International monetary economics</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Monetary reserves</topic><topic>Net exports</topic><topic>Political economy</topic><topic>Portfolio performance</topic><topic>Predictability</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Trade flows</topic><topic>U.S.A</topic><topic>Wealth</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rey, Hélène</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><jtitle>The Journal of political economy</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Gourinchas, Pierre‐Olivier</au><au>Rey, Hélène</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>International Financial Adjustment</atitle><jtitle>The Journal of political economy</jtitle><date>2007-08-01</date><risdate>2007</risdate><volume>115</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>665</spage><epage>703</epage><pages>665-703</pages><issn>0022-3808</issn><eissn>1537-534X</eissn><coden>JLPEAR</coden><abstract>We explore the implications of a country’s external constraint for the dynamics of net foreign assets, returns, and exchange rates. Deteriorations in external accounts imply future trade surpluses (trade channel) or excess returns on the net foreign portfolio (valuation channel). Using a new data set on U.S. gross external positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute 27 percent of the cyclical external adjustment. Our approach has asset‐pricing implications: external imbalances predict net foreign portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net export growth at longer horizons. The exchange rate is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond.</abstract><cop>Chicago</cop><pub>The University of Chicago Press</pub><doi>10.1086/521966</doi><tpages>39</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0022-3808 |
| ispartof | The Journal of political economy, 2007-08, Vol.115 (4), p.665-703 |
| issn | 0022-3808 1537-534X |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_jstor_primary_4498899 |
| source | Jstor Complete Legacy; University of Chicago Press Journals; Business Source Complete |
| subjects | Balance of payments Balance of trade Depreciation Determinism Economic fluctuations Economic theory Exchange rates Foreign assets Foreign exchange Foreign exchange rates Imports International monetary economics Mathematical models Monetary reserves Net exports Political economy Portfolio performance Predictability Statistical analysis Studies Trade flows U.S.A Wealth |
| title | International Financial Adjustment |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-03T19%3A40%3A46IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-jstor_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=International%20Financial%20Adjustment&rft.jtitle=The%20Journal%20of%20political%20economy&rft.au=Gourinchas,%20Pierre%E2%80%90Olivier&rft.date=2007-08-01&rft.volume=115&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=665&rft.epage=703&rft.pages=665-703&rft.issn=0022-3808&rft.eissn=1537-534X&rft.coden=JLPEAR&rft_id=info:doi/10.1086/521966&rft_dat=%3Cjstor_proqu%3E10.1086/521966%3C/jstor_proqu%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=195433745&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_jstor_id=10.1086/521966&rfr_iscdi=true |