PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS IN FORECASTING GEOGRAPHICAL POPULATIONS
This paper asks the question: how does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, possible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. Decomposition, aggrega...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.) A.C.T.), 1997-11, Vol.14 (2), p.145-166 |
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| container_title | Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.) |
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| creator | Rees, Philip |
| description | This paper asks the question: how does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, possible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. Decomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. Issues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/BF03029337 |
| format | Article |
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The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0814-5725</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1443-2447</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1835-9469</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/BF03029337</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Australian Population Association</publisher><subject>Age ; Aggregation ; Analytical forecasting ; Censuses ; Decomposition ; Demography ; Forecasting ; Forecasting techniques ; Geographic regions ; Geography ; Human migration ; Human populations ; Mathematical models ; Modeling ; Multistate population model ; Musical intervals ; Parameterization ; Parametric models ; Partitioning ; Population ; Population forecasting ; Spatial interaction models ; Spatial models ; Studies</subject><ispartof>Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.), 1997-11, Vol.14 (2), p.145-166</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media 1997.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c348t-c0e7d34627e5fee215a79764134851c3e79bb262b3809eda5240348165f879a43</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c348t-c0e7d34627e5fee215a79764134851c3e79bb262b3809eda5240348165f879a43</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/41110450$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/41110450$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,803,27924,27925,33774,58017,58250</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Rees, Philip</creatorcontrib><title>PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS IN FORECASTING GEOGRAPHICAL POPULATIONS</title><title>Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.)</title><description>This paper asks the question: how does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? 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Following an exposition of the standard model, possible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. Decomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. Issues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Australian Population Association</pub><doi>10.1007/BF03029337</doi><tpages>22</tpages></addata></record> |
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| identifier | ISSN: 0814-5725 |
| ispartof | Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.), 1997-11, Vol.14 (2), p.145-166 |
| issn | 0814-5725 1443-2447 1835-9469 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_jstor_primary_41110450 |
| source | SpringerNature Journals; Sociological Abstracts; JSTOR Archive Collection A-Z Listing |
| subjects | Age Aggregation Analytical forecasting Censuses Decomposition Demography Forecasting Forecasting techniques Geographic regions Geography Human migration Human populations Mathematical models Modeling Multistate population model Musical intervals Parameterization Parametric models Partitioning Population Population forecasting Spatial interaction models Spatial models Studies |
| title | PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS IN FORECASTING GEOGRAPHICAL POPULATIONS |
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