Models for Predicting Occupied Black Bear Habitat in Coastal North Carolina

Black bears (Ursus americanus) are restricted to approximately 10% of their historical range in the Southeast. While the southern Appalachian mountains contain a relatively contiguous black bear population, southeastern coastal plain populations are fragmented across several states. Some bear populations in southeastern coastal areas are declining or threatened, yet occupied bear habitat in coastal North Carolina has increased from 667,000 ha (1971) to 2.2 million ha (1991). These contrasting situations in the Southeast warrant the development of quantifiable techniques for determining suitable black bear habitat on a regional scale. Predicting black bear distribution is a critical first step in determining suitable habitat. We tested 12 habitat variables, using 6 backward elimination multiple regression equations, against occupied range and changes in occupied range in coastal North Carolina. Human density and percent of a county in total forest land, loblolly--shortleaf (Pinus taeda--P. echinata), oak--gum--cypress (Quercus spp.--Nyssa spp.--Taxodium distichum), wheat, and soybeans were accurate predictors (α = 0.05) of current black bear distribution. Only changing human density and changing percent forest land accurately predicted changes in distribution through time. The black bear range expansion in eastern North Carolina, coupled with the results of these models, points to the adaptability of black bears and the complicated nature of bear--habitat relationships in areas influenced by major landscape changes. Managers in other regions may wish to develop similar models for the specific habitat characteristics of their areas. Such models may be used to predict the suitability of areas for restoration or the long-term consequences of habitat alterations. We recommend that bear managers in the southeastern coastal plain consider the juxtaposition of contiguous forested areas and oak--gum--cypress forests with areas of suitable bear food crops on a landscape scale and develop cooperative efforts with the forest industry to enhance habitat management.