Heterogeneous Shedding of Escherichia coli 0157 in Cattle and Its Implications for Control
Identification of the relative importance of within-and betweenhost variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Esc...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2006-01, Vol.103 (3), p.547-552 |
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| container_title | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS |
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| creator | Matthews, L. Low, J. C. Gally, D. L. Pearce, M. C. Mellor, D. J. Heesterbeek, J. A. P. Chase-Topping, M. Naylor, S. W. Shaw, D. J. Reid, S. W. J. Gunn, G. J. Woolhouse, M. E. J. |
| description | Identification of the relative importance of within-and betweenhost variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli 0157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: ≈80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within-and betweenhost variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, Ro, could be reduced to |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1073/pnas.0503776103 |
| format | Article |
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C. ; Gally, D. L. ; Pearce, M. C. ; Mellor, D. J. ; Heesterbeek, J. A. P. ; Chase-Topping, M. ; Naylor, S. W. ; Shaw, D. J. ; Reid, S. W. J. ; Gunn, G. J. ; Woolhouse, M. E. J.</creator><creatorcontrib>Matthews, L. ; Low, J. C. ; Gally, D. L. ; Pearce, M. C. ; Mellor, D. J. ; Heesterbeek, J. A. P. ; Chase-Topping, M. ; Naylor, S. W. ; Shaw, D. J. ; Reid, S. W. J. ; Gunn, G. J. ; Woolhouse, M. E. J.</creatorcontrib><description>Identification of the relative importance of within-and betweenhost variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli 0157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: ≈80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within-and betweenhost variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, Ro, could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R₀ by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli 0157.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0027-8424</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0503776103</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>National Academy of Sciences</publisher><subject>Bacterial load ; Calves ; Cattle ; Data transmission ; Disease transmission ; Epidemiology ; Infections ; Pathogens ; Statistical variance ; Stochastic models</subject><ispartof>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2006-01, Vol.103 (3), p.547-552</ispartof><rights>Copyright 2006 National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/30049033$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/30049033$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,803,27924,27925,58017,58250</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Matthews, L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Low, J. 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Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli 0157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: ≈80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within-and betweenhost variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, Ro, could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R₀ by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli 0157.</description><subject>Bacterial load</subject><subject>Calves</subject><subject>Cattle</subject><subject>Data transmission</subject><subject>Disease transmission</subject><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Infections</subject><subject>Pathogens</subject><subject>Statistical variance</subject><subject>Stochastic models</subject><issn>0027-8424</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2006</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid/><recordid>eNotzLFOwzAUQFEPIFEKMxPS-4GU5ziJ4xFFhUaq1IFOLNWLYzeOUruyzcDfgwTTHY50GXviuOEoxcvVU9pgjULKhqO4YSvEUhZtVVZ37D6lGRFV3eKKfe5MNjGcjTfhK8HHZMbR-TMEC9ukJxOdnhyBDosD5LUE56GjnBcD5Efoc4L-cl2cpuyCT2BDhC74HMPywG4tLck8_nfNjm_bY7cr9of3vnvdF7Mqc1HZhhoaSi7R1jVvlFbGSI4kLLZaDa0erRS_pDnhKAfNzVAJqQZCtANvxJo9_23nlEM8XaO7UPw-CcRKoRDiB87EUFM</recordid><startdate>20060117</startdate><enddate>20060117</enddate><creator>Matthews, L.</creator><creator>Low, J. 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J.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Heterogeneous Shedding of Escherichia coli 0157 in Cattle and Its Implications for Control</atitle><jtitle>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS</jtitle><date>2006-01-17</date><risdate>2006</risdate><volume>103</volume><issue>3</issue><spage>547</spage><epage>552</epage><pages>547-552</pages><issn>0027-8424</issn><abstract>Identification of the relative importance of within-and betweenhost variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli 0157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: ≈80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within-and betweenhost variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, Ro, could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R₀ by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli 0157.</abstract><pub>National Academy of Sciences</pub><doi>10.1073/pnas.0503776103</doi><tpages>6</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Bacterial load Calves Cattle Data transmission Disease transmission Epidemiology Infections Pathogens Statistical variance Stochastic models |
| title | Heterogeneous Shedding of Escherichia coli 0157 in Cattle and Its Implications for Control |
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