How Near-Misses Influence Decision Making Under Risk: A Missed Opportunity for Learning

Although organizations appear to learn from obvious failures, we argue that it is harder for them to learn from "near-misses"—events in which chance played a role in averting failure. In this paper, we formalize the concept of near-misses and hypothesize that organizations and managers fai...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Management science 2008-08, Vol.54 (8), p.1425-1440
Hauptverfasser:	Dillon, Robin L, Tinsley, Catherine H
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Applied sciences Bayesian analysis Business organization Business studies Contrafactuals Decision making Decision theory. Utility theory Exact sciences and technology Failure Financial risk inference Learning Management science Management theory Modeling Multilevel models Operational research and scientific management Operational research. Management science Organization theory Organizational learning Probabilities Probability theory Project management risk Risk assessment Risk management Risk theory. Actuarial science Risk-taking (Psychology) Safety and security measures Spacecraft Spacecraft launching Studies
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