Increasing spring dust storms in the future over the Taklimakan Desert, Northwest China: implications from changes in circulation pattern frequency in CMIP6

Dust storms over the Taklimakan Desert (TD), Northwest China, not only influence human health but also affect regional climate through direct effects of dust aerosols on solar and longwave radiation. The Coupled Model Intercomparisons Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models project a decrease in dust storms because of a decrease in dust emissions over the TD in the future under warming scenarios. However, inaccurate simulations of dust emissions cause the CMIP5 models to simulate dust storms poorly. Here we analyzed typical circulation patterns that initiate dust storms over the TD and examined changes in the frequency of typical circulation patterns derived from the CMIP6 models in an extreme warming scenario. The results show that there will be an increase in typical circulation pattern frequency in the latter half of the 21st century compared with 1958–2014, implying an increase in dust storms over the TD in the future under the extreme warming scenario. The increase in dust storms over the TD may be related to an increase in synoptic activities in the future from the Middle Asia to the TD, which is caused by a southern movement of subtropical westerly jet stream under the extreme warming scenario.