European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C
Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and...
Gespeichert in:
Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental research letters 2020-10, Vol.15 (10), p.104021 |
---|---|
Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
container_end_page | |
---|---|
container_issue | 10 |
container_start_page | 104021 |
container_title | Environmental research letters |
container_volume | 15 |
creator | Wohland, Jan Brayshaw, David Bloomfield, Hannah Wild, Martin |
description | Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar radiation, we demonstrate that most of them fail to capture multidecadal surface radiation variability in Europe. To this end, we systematically compare the reanalyses 20CRv2c, 20CRv3, ERA20C and CERA20C and the free model run ERA20CM. We show that only CERA20C captures dimming (1949-1979) and brightening (1979-2009) in line with station observations, satellite-era reanalyses and established theory. The lack of multidecadal surface radiation variability in 20CRv2c/v3 is plausible given the use of constant aerosols. In contrast, ERA20CM, ERA20C and CERA20C are forced with time-varying aerosols. Despite this common forcing, ERA20CM and ERA20C surprisingly show no trends in clear-sky fluxes over the dimming and brightening periods while CERA20C shows significant trends. We discuss different potential explanations for this discrepancy (model versions, ocean coupling and ensemble size) and conclude that none of them provides a convincing explanation. Our results therefore imply that only CERA20C is suitable for assessments of surface solar radiation variability on multi-decadal timescales. This particularly applies to impact studies, for example, on long-term potentials of solar power generation. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6 |
format | Article |
fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_iop_j</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_iop_journals_10_1088_1748_9326_aba7e6</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><doaj_id>oai_doaj_org_article_ed983449db95495487b3de8d6ae61a24</doaj_id><sourcerecordid>2582417777</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c502t-c6b9795c2ff34933cbcfa744e45825836823651741a702d8af5a0e5ac2610fb63</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp9kU2LFDEQhhtRcF29ewx48eC4-e70cRlGXVgQRM-hklRLhmynTbrF-fdmbFk9LBsKEor3fVIfXfea0feMGnPFeml2g-D6Chz0qJ90F_epp_-9n3cvaj1SqqTqzUXnDmvJM8JE7ta0xIAeAiRSc4JCfkKJ4GKKy4k4COlEPMzLWjCQOBFIiXicFpym2CylQSCdKlaCvzzOC9kfvlxzun_ZPRshVXz1977svn04fN1_2t1-_nizv77deUX5svPaDf2gPB9HIQchvPMj9FKiVIYrI7ThQqvWB4Oe8mBgVEBRgeea0dFpcdndbNyQ4WjnEu-gnGyGaP8kcvluoSzRJ7QYBiOkHIIblGxheicCmqABNQMuG-vNxppL_rFiXewxr6X1V22rhUvWt9NUdFP5kmstON7_yqg9b8Wex27PY7fbVprl3WaJef7HfET-9gE5lmSZ2lyScmbnMIrfLy-bEA</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Open Website</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2582417777</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C</title><source>IOP Publishing Free Content</source><source>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</source><source>EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals</source><source>IOPscience extra</source><source>Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry</source><creator>Wohland, Jan ; Brayshaw, David ; Bloomfield, Hannah ; Wild, Martin</creator><creatorcontrib>Wohland, Jan ; Brayshaw, David ; Bloomfield, Hannah ; Wild, Martin</creatorcontrib><description>Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar radiation, we demonstrate that most of them fail to capture multidecadal surface radiation variability in Europe. To this end, we systematically compare the reanalyses 20CRv2c, 20CRv3, ERA20C and CERA20C and the free model run ERA20CM. We show that only CERA20C captures dimming (1949-1979) and brightening (1979-2009) in line with station observations, satellite-era reanalyses and established theory. The lack of multidecadal surface radiation variability in 20CRv2c/v3 is plausible given the use of constant aerosols. In contrast, ERA20CM, ERA20C and CERA20C are forced with time-varying aerosols. Despite this common forcing, ERA20CM and ERA20C surprisingly show no trends in clear-sky fluxes over the dimming and brightening periods while CERA20C shows significant trends. We discuss different potential explanations for this discrepancy (model versions, ocean coupling and ensemble size) and conclude that none of them provides a convincing explanation. Our results therefore imply that only CERA20C is suitable for assessments of surface solar radiation variability on multi-decadal timescales. This particularly applies to impact studies, for example, on long-term potentials of solar power generation.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1748-9326</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1748-9326</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6</identifier><identifier>CODEN: ERLNAL</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Bristol: IOP Publishing</publisher><subject>20th century reanalysis ; Aerosols ; Brightening ; CERA20C ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate science ; Climate variability ; Dimming ; Energy budget ; photovoltaics ; Radiation ; Satellite observation ; solar ; Solar energy ; Solar panels ; Solar power ; Solar power generation ; Solar radiation ; Trends ; Variability</subject><ispartof>Environmental research letters, 2020-10, Vol.15 (10), p.104021</ispartof><rights>2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd</rights><rights>Copyright IOP Publishing Oct 2020</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c502t-c6b9795c2ff34933cbcfa744e45825836823651741a702d8af5a0e5ac2610fb63</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c502t-c6b9795c2ff34933cbcfa744e45825836823651741a702d8af5a0e5ac2610fb63</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3619-7568 ; 0000-0001-8336-0009 ; 0000-0002-3927-4362 ; 0000-0002-5616-1503</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6/pdf$$EPDF$$P50$$Giop$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,864,2102,27924,27925,38868,38890,53840,53867</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wohland, Jan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Brayshaw, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bloomfield, Hannah</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wild, Martin</creatorcontrib><title>European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C</title><title>Environmental research letters</title><addtitle>ERL</addtitle><addtitle>Environ. Res. Lett</addtitle><description>Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar radiation, we demonstrate that most of them fail to capture multidecadal surface radiation variability in Europe. To this end, we systematically compare the reanalyses 20CRv2c, 20CRv3, ERA20C and CERA20C and the free model run ERA20CM. We show that only CERA20C captures dimming (1949-1979) and brightening (1979-2009) in line with station observations, satellite-era reanalyses and established theory. The lack of multidecadal surface radiation variability in 20CRv2c/v3 is plausible given the use of constant aerosols. In contrast, ERA20CM, ERA20C and CERA20C are forced with time-varying aerosols. Despite this common forcing, ERA20CM and ERA20C surprisingly show no trends in clear-sky fluxes over the dimming and brightening periods while CERA20C shows significant trends. We discuss different potential explanations for this discrepancy (model versions, ocean coupling and ensemble size) and conclude that none of them provides a convincing explanation. Our results therefore imply that only CERA20C is suitable for assessments of surface solar radiation variability on multi-decadal timescales. This particularly applies to impact studies, for example, on long-term potentials of solar power generation.</description><subject>20th century reanalysis</subject><subject>Aerosols</subject><subject>Brightening</subject><subject>CERA20C</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climate science</subject><subject>Climate variability</subject><subject>Dimming</subject><subject>Energy budget</subject><subject>photovoltaics</subject><subject>Radiation</subject><subject>Satellite observation</subject><subject>solar</subject><subject>Solar energy</subject><subject>Solar panels</subject><subject>Solar power</subject><subject>Solar power generation</subject><subject>Solar radiation</subject><subject>Trends</subject><subject>Variability</subject><issn>1748-9326</issn><issn>1748-9326</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>O3W</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kU2LFDEQhhtRcF29ewx48eC4-e70cRlGXVgQRM-hklRLhmynTbrF-fdmbFk9LBsKEor3fVIfXfea0feMGnPFeml2g-D6Chz0qJ90F_epp_-9n3cvaj1SqqTqzUXnDmvJM8JE7ta0xIAeAiRSc4JCfkKJ4GKKy4k4COlEPMzLWjCQOBFIiXicFpym2CylQSCdKlaCvzzOC9kfvlxzun_ZPRshVXz1977svn04fN1_2t1-_nizv77deUX5svPaDf2gPB9HIQchvPMj9FKiVIYrI7ThQqvWB4Oe8mBgVEBRgeea0dFpcdndbNyQ4WjnEu-gnGyGaP8kcvluoSzRJ7QYBiOkHIIblGxheicCmqABNQMuG-vNxppL_rFiXewxr6X1V22rhUvWt9NUdFP5kmstON7_yqg9b8Wex27PY7fbVprl3WaJef7HfET-9gE5lmSZ2lyScmbnMIrfLy-bEA</recordid><startdate>20201001</startdate><enddate>20201001</enddate><creator>Wohland, Jan</creator><creator>Brayshaw, David</creator><creator>Bloomfield, Hannah</creator><creator>Wild, Martin</creator><general>IOP Publishing</general><scope>O3W</scope><scope>TSCCA</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3619-7568</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8336-0009</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20201001</creationdate><title>European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C</title><author>Wohland, Jan ; Brayshaw, David ; Bloomfield, Hannah ; Wild, Martin</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c502t-c6b9795c2ff34933cbcfa744e45825836823651741a702d8af5a0e5ac2610fb63</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>20th century reanalysis</topic><topic>Aerosols</topic><topic>Brightening</topic><topic>CERA20C</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climate science</topic><topic>Climate variability</topic><topic>Dimming</topic><topic>Energy budget</topic><topic>photovoltaics</topic><topic>Radiation</topic><topic>Satellite observation</topic><topic>solar</topic><topic>Solar energy</topic><topic>Solar panels</topic><topic>Solar power</topic><topic>Solar power generation</topic><topic>Solar radiation</topic><topic>Trends</topic><topic>Variability</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Wohland, Jan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Brayshaw, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bloomfield, Hannah</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wild, Martin</creatorcontrib><collection>IOP Publishing Free Content</collection><collection>IOPscience (Open Access)</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>Environmental research letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wohland, Jan</au><au>Brayshaw, David</au><au>Bloomfield, Hannah</au><au>Wild, Martin</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C</atitle><jtitle>Environmental research letters</jtitle><stitle>ERL</stitle><addtitle>Environ. Res. Lett</addtitle><date>2020-10-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>15</volume><issue>10</issue><spage>104021</spage><pages>104021-</pages><issn>1748-9326</issn><eissn>1748-9326</eissn><coden>ERLNAL</coden><abstract>Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar radiation, we demonstrate that most of them fail to capture multidecadal surface radiation variability in Europe. To this end, we systematically compare the reanalyses 20CRv2c, 20CRv3, ERA20C and CERA20C and the free model run ERA20CM. We show that only CERA20C captures dimming (1949-1979) and brightening (1979-2009) in line with station observations, satellite-era reanalyses and established theory. The lack of multidecadal surface radiation variability in 20CRv2c/v3 is plausible given the use of constant aerosols. In contrast, ERA20CM, ERA20C and CERA20C are forced with time-varying aerosols. Despite this common forcing, ERA20CM and ERA20C surprisingly show no trends in clear-sky fluxes over the dimming and brightening periods while CERA20C shows significant trends. We discuss different potential explanations for this discrepancy (model versions, ocean coupling and ensemble size) and conclude that none of them provides a convincing explanation. Our results therefore imply that only CERA20C is suitable for assessments of surface solar radiation variability on multi-decadal timescales. This particularly applies to impact studies, for example, on long-term potentials of solar power generation.</abstract><cop>Bristol</cop><pub>IOP Publishing</pub><doi>10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6</doi><tpages>24</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3619-7568</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8336-0009</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
fulltext | fulltext |
identifier | ISSN: 1748-9326 |
ispartof | Environmental research letters, 2020-10, Vol.15 (10), p.104021 |
issn | 1748-9326 1748-9326 |
language | eng |
recordid | cdi_iop_journals_10_1088_1748_9326_aba7e6 |
source | IOP Publishing Free Content; DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; IOPscience extra; Free Full-Text Journals in Chemistry |
subjects | 20th century reanalysis Aerosols Brightening CERA20C Climate change Climate models Climate science Climate variability Dimming Energy budget photovoltaics Radiation Satellite observation solar Solar energy Solar panels Solar power Solar power generation Solar radiation Trends Variability |
title | European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C |
url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-25T17%3A26%3A08IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_iop_j&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=European%20multidecadal%20solar%20variability%20badly%20captured%20in%20all%20centennial%20reanalyses%20except%20CERA20C&rft.jtitle=Environmental%20research%20letters&rft.au=Wohland,%20Jan&rft.date=2020-10-01&rft.volume=15&rft.issue=10&rft.spage=104021&rft.pages=104021-&rft.issn=1748-9326&rft.eissn=1748-9326&rft.coden=ERLNAL&rft_id=info:doi/10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_iop_j%3E2582417777%3C/proquest_iop_j%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2582417777&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_doaj_id=oai_doaj_org_article_ed983449db95495487b3de8d6ae61a24&rfr_iscdi=true |