Causal Decision Trees

Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Currently, there is a need for scalable and automated methods for causal relationship exploration in data. Classification methods are fast and they could be practical substitutes for finding causal signals in data. However, classification methods are not designed for causal discovery and a classification method may find false causal signals and miss the true ones. In this paper, we develop a causal decision tree (CDT) where nodes have causal interpretations. Our method follows a well-established causal inference framework and makes use of a classic statistical test to establish the causal relationship between a predictor variable and the outcome variable. At the same time, by taking the advantages of normal decision trees, a CDT provides a compact graphical representation of the causal relationships, and the construction of a CDT is fast as a result of the divide and conquer strategy employed, making CDTs practical for representing and finding causal signals in large data sets. Experiment results demonstrate that CDTs can identify meaningful causal relationships and the CDT algorithm is scalable.