Modeling and Simulation of Glacier Avalanche: A Case Study of Gayari Sector Glaciers Hazards Assessment

Glacier avalanches are natural hazards that could damage infrastructures and threaten lives in high-altitude mountainous terrains. On April 7, 2012, a massive ice avalanche struck a Pakistani base at Gayari sector, Saltoro Valley, and buried/killed 148 soldiers and civilians. Keeping in view the catastrophe, a study was designed with the objectives to: 1) model and simulate the Gayari sector glacier avalanche incident in terms of height, extent, velocity, pressure, and momentum; 2) generate hazard risk assessment of possible other glacier avalanches in the Saltoro Valley through modeling and simulation; and 3) suitability analysis of current camp sites and recommendation of new safe camps sites locations in the Saltoro valley. To simulate the Gayari sector glacier event and other Glacier possible avalanches, a physical process-based rapid mass movements (RAMMS) was used. The RAMMS has two main components, i.e., Voellmy-Salm (VS) model and random kinetic energy, which deals with variables such as avalanche height and the mean avalanche velocity during the course of simulation. The suitability analysis of current camp sites were achieved using weighted overlay analysis with different constraints in ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. The RAMMS model simulation of the Gayari avalanche event predicted a maximum velocity of 74 ms -1 , generating a pressure of 5074 kPa and attaining a height of 45 m, whereas the predicted debris volume on the ground was 3.8145 million m 3 . A good agreement was found between actual debris height and extent, as compared with the RAMMS model output. The RAMMS model simulated all the potential tributary glacier avalanches of Saltoro valley very well. The weighted overlay analyses in ArcGIS Spatial Analyst revealed that the existing camp sites are safe and were not threatened by the glacier avalanche hazard. However, it was recommended that the Gayari camp should not be constructed at the same location and should be relocated to the proposed safe camp sites identified in this research study. The proposed methodology developed in the current study could be applied in the Siachen conflict zone for avalanche hazard/risk analysis of all the camp sites located in the valley.