Research on the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation and oil import to China's GDP
In recent years, China's degree of dependence on foreign oil has been getting higher and higher. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has an enormous influence on China's import of crude oil, which continually shocks the economic development of China. In this paper, the Markov...
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| creator | Zhang Chuan-ping Cao Xiao Zhao Ya-nan Zhang Jing Yu Lei |
| description | In recent years, China's degree of dependence on foreign oil has been getting higher and higher. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has an enormous influence on China's import of crude oil, which continually shocks the economic development of China. In this paper, the Markov Property of international oil price fluctuation is proven, and Markov Chain's stable State Transition Probability is calculated. Under each Markov state, the GDP cost about every import policy is calculated. Finally Linear Programming Model is build which can get the optimal import policy. By the model, this paper estimates that the fluctuation of the international oil price can cause a loss about 47.078 billion Yuan to GDP in a single month. Besides, we get some decision making methods according to the state of international oil price. Finally, based on the research, four suggestions to oil importing are put forward in the paper. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1109/ICMSE.2013.6586422 |
| format | Conference Proceeding |
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Finally, based on the research, four suggestions to oil importing are put forward in the paper.</description><subject>Analytical models</subject><subject>Economic indicators</subject><subject>Fluctuations</subject><subject>GDP loss</subject><subject>international crude oil price fluctuation</subject><subject>Linear programming</subject><subject>Linear Programming model</subject><subject>Markov Chain</subject><subject>Markov processes</subject><subject>optimal import policy</subject><subject>Predictive models</subject><subject>Probability</subject><issn>2155-1847</issn><isbn>1479904732</isbn><isbn>9781479904730</isbn><isbn>1479904740</isbn><isbn>9781479904723</isbn><isbn>1479904724</isbn><isbn>9781479904747</isbn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>conference_proceeding</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>conference_proceeding</recordtype><sourceid>6IE</sourceid><sourceid>RIE</sourceid><recordid>eNpFUE1Lw0AUXFHBWvsH9PJunhL3ZXez2aPEWgsVxY9z2WxeyEqalGRz8N831IJzGYZhhmEYu0UeI3LzsM5fP5dxwlHEqcpSmSRn7BqlNoZLLfn5vxDJBZslqFSEmdRXbDEMP5zzqSUV0syY_aCBbO9q6FoINYHf7a0L0FXg20B9a4PvWtuA68eSoPMN7HvvCKpmdGE8umDb8uhM2a4PEDrIa9_a-wFWT-837LKyzUCLE8_Z9_PyK3-JNm-rdf64iTxqFSKlKsoMz7RN0JAokHOBaVVm025hJqSV0aoUkmtXkHFZIUgWqS0nIdChmLO7v15PRNtp5M72v9vTPeIAIM9W1g</recordid><startdate>201307</startdate><enddate>201307</enddate><creator>Zhang Chuan-ping</creator><creator>Cao Xiao</creator><creator>Zhao Ya-nan</creator><creator>Zhang Jing</creator><creator>Yu Lei</creator><general>IEEE</general><scope>6IE</scope><scope>6IL</scope><scope>CBEJK</scope><scope>RIE</scope><scope>RIL</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201307</creationdate><title>Research on the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation and oil import to China's GDP</title><author>Zhang Chuan-ping ; Cao Xiao ; Zhao Ya-nan ; Zhang Jing ; Yu Lei</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-i175t-55fe89087a219e3b100316fd8184399996f975d3407cbe9c8b3e4b6adbe931c13</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>conference_proceedings</rsrctype><prefilter>conference_proceedings</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>Analytical models</topic><topic>Economic indicators</topic><topic>Fluctuations</topic><topic>GDP loss</topic><topic>international crude oil price fluctuation</topic><topic>Linear programming</topic><topic>Linear Programming model</topic><topic>Markov Chain</topic><topic>Markov processes</topic><topic>optimal import policy</topic><topic>Predictive models</topic><topic>Probability</topic><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zhang Chuan-ping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cao Xiao</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhao Ya-nan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang Jing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yu Lei</creatorcontrib><collection>IEEE Electronic Library (IEL) Conference Proceedings</collection><collection>IEEE Proceedings Order Plan All Online (POP All Online) 1998-present by volume</collection><collection>IEEE Xplore All Conference Proceedings</collection><collection>IEEE Electronic Library (IEL)</collection><collection>IEEE Proceedings Order Plans (POP All) 1998-Present</collection></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext_linktorsrc</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Zhang Chuan-ping</au><au>Cao Xiao</au><au>Zhao Ya-nan</au><au>Zhang Jing</au><au>Yu Lei</au><format>book</format><genre>proceeding</genre><ristype>CONF</ristype><atitle>Research on the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation and oil import to China's GDP</atitle><btitle>2013 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 20th Annual Conference Proceedings</btitle><stitle>ICMSE</stitle><date>2013-07</date><risdate>2013</risdate><spage>1168</spage><epage>1173</epage><pages>1168-1173</pages><issn>2155-1847</issn><isbn>1479904732</isbn><isbn>9781479904730</isbn><eisbn>1479904740</eisbn><eisbn>9781479904723</eisbn><eisbn>1479904724</eisbn><eisbn>9781479904747</eisbn><abstract>In recent years, China's degree of dependence on foreign oil has been getting higher and higher. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has an enormous influence on China's import of crude oil, which continually shocks the economic development of China. In this paper, the Markov Property of international oil price fluctuation is proven, and Markov Chain's stable State Transition Probability is calculated. Under each Markov state, the GDP cost about every import policy is calculated. Finally Linear Programming Model is build which can get the optimal import policy. By the model, this paper estimates that the fluctuation of the international oil price can cause a loss about 47.078 billion Yuan to GDP in a single month. Besides, we get some decision making methods according to the state of international oil price. Finally, based on the research, four suggestions to oil importing are put forward in the paper.</abstract><pub>IEEE</pub><doi>10.1109/ICMSE.2013.6586422</doi><tpages>6</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | 2013 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 20th Annual Conference Proceedings, 2013, p.1168-1173 |
| issn | 2155-1847 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_ieee_primary_6586422 |
| source | IEEE Electronic Library (IEL) Conference Proceedings |
| subjects | Analytical models Economic indicators Fluctuations GDP loss international crude oil price fluctuation Linear programming Linear Programming model Markov Chain Markov processes optimal import policy Predictive models Probability |
| title | Research on the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation and oil import to China's GDP |
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