A simulation study on the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect in the supply chain
Bullwhip effect is undesirable in the supply chains, exacerbating its performance. Various factors can cause bullwhip effect, one of which is customer demand forecasting. In this paper, impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect has been considered. A simulation study is implemented consid...
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| creator | Chaharsooghi, S.K. Faramarzi, H. Heydari, J. |
| description | Bullwhip effect is undesirable in the supply chains, exacerbating its performance. Various factors can cause bullwhip effect, one of which is customer demand forecasting. In this paper, impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect has been considered. A simulation study is implemented considering a supply chain consisting of one supplier and four retailers. A time series procedure (ARMA) is used as the forecasting method and is compared with two of the most applicable forecasting methods (moving average (MA) and exponential smoothing (ES)), from both bullwhip effect and forecasting accuracy point of view. Our findings show that having more accurate forecasting method is not equivalent to creating less bullwhip effect. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1109/IEEM.2008.4738197 |
| format | Conference Proceeding |
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Various factors can cause bullwhip effect, one of which is customer demand forecasting. In this paper, impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect has been considered. A simulation study is implemented considering a supply chain consisting of one supplier and four retailers. A time series procedure (ARMA) is used as the forecasting method and is compared with two of the most applicable forecasting methods (moving average (MA) and exponential smoothing (ES)), from both bullwhip effect and forecasting accuracy point of view. 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Various factors can cause bullwhip effect, one of which is customer demand forecasting. In this paper, impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect has been considered. A simulation study is implemented considering a supply chain consisting of one supplier and four retailers. A time series procedure (ARMA) is used as the forecasting method and is compared with two of the most applicable forecasting methods (moving average (MA) and exponential smoothing (ES)), from both bullwhip effect and forecasting accuracy point of view. Our findings show that having more accurate forecasting method is not equivalent to creating less bullwhip effect.</description><subject>Bullwhip effect</subject><subject>Companies</subject><subject>Costs</subject><subject>Demand forecasting</subject><subject>Economic forecasting</subject><subject>Forecasting methods</subject><subject>Industrial engineering</subject><subject>Predictive models</subject><subject>Smoothing methods</subject><subject>Supply chain</subject><subject>Supply chain management</subject><subject>Supply chains</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>Virtual manufacturing</subject><issn>2157-3611</issn><issn>2157-362X</issn><isbn>9781424426294</isbn><isbn>1424426294</isbn><isbn>1424426308</isbn><isbn>9781424426300</isbn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>conference_proceeding</rsrctype><creationdate>2008</creationdate><recordtype>conference_proceeding</recordtype><sourceid>6IE</sourceid><sourceid>RIE</sourceid><recordid>eNo9kM1OwzAQhM1PJdrSB0Bc_AIp_tnE9rGqAlQq4gISt8pxNsQoaaLaEerbE9TCZXa082kOQ8gdZ0vOmXnY5PnLUjCml6Ck5kZdkBkHASAyyfQlmQqeqkRm4uOKLIzS50wYuP7POJ-Q2W-HYaBVdkMWIXwxxrjQI5hNSbGiwbdDY6Pv9jTEoTzS0cQaqW976yLtKlp1B3Q2RL__pC3GuivDH1QMTfNd-55iVeFI-9M7DH3fHKmrrd_fkkllm4CL852T98f8bf2cbF-fNuvVNvFcpTEpLRaKWymcyaxi5WhSBdJoY7jLMJUMFGJhCgVQKSilsxWCdVA4B6PKObk_9XpE3PUH39rDcXfeTv4A-Qddkg</recordid><startdate>200812</startdate><enddate>200812</enddate><creator>Chaharsooghi, S.K.</creator><creator>Faramarzi, H.</creator><creator>Heydari, J.</creator><general>IEEE</general><scope>6IE</scope><scope>6IL</scope><scope>CBEJK</scope><scope>RIE</scope><scope>RIL</scope></search><sort><creationdate>200812</creationdate><title>A simulation study on the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect in the supply chain</title><author>Chaharsooghi, S.K. ; Faramarzi, H. ; Heydari, J.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-i175t-daeb71a32c96a70d32c574398991c6e53047eeb9b744f74d3cafe4ac4bcc4c4b3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>conference_proceedings</rsrctype><prefilter>conference_proceedings</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2008</creationdate><topic>Bullwhip effect</topic><topic>Companies</topic><topic>Costs</topic><topic>Demand forecasting</topic><topic>Economic forecasting</topic><topic>Forecasting methods</topic><topic>Industrial engineering</topic><topic>Predictive models</topic><topic>Smoothing methods</topic><topic>Supply chain</topic><topic>Supply chain management</topic><topic>Supply chains</topic><topic>Time series</topic><topic>Virtual manufacturing</topic><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Chaharsooghi, S.K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Faramarzi, H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Heydari, J.</creatorcontrib><collection>IEEE Electronic Library (IEL) Conference Proceedings</collection><collection>IEEE Proceedings Order Plan All Online (POP All Online) 1998-present by volume</collection><collection>IEEE Xplore All Conference Proceedings</collection><collection>IEEE Electronic Library (IEL)</collection><collection>IEEE Proceedings Order Plans (POP All) 1998-Present</collection></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext_linktorsrc</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Chaharsooghi, S.K.</au><au>Faramarzi, H.</au><au>Heydari, J.</au><format>book</format><genre>proceeding</genre><ristype>CONF</ristype><atitle>A simulation study on the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect in the supply chain</atitle><btitle>2008 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management</btitle><stitle>IEEM</stitle><date>2008-12</date><risdate>2008</risdate><spage>1875</spage><epage>1879</epage><pages>1875-1879</pages><issn>2157-3611</issn><eissn>2157-362X</eissn><isbn>9781424426294</isbn><isbn>1424426294</isbn><eisbn>1424426308</eisbn><eisbn>9781424426300</eisbn><abstract>Bullwhip effect is undesirable in the supply chains, exacerbating its performance. Various factors can cause bullwhip effect, one of which is customer demand forecasting. In this paper, impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect has been considered. A simulation study is implemented considering a supply chain consisting of one supplier and four retailers. A time series procedure (ARMA) is used as the forecasting method and is compared with two of the most applicable forecasting methods (moving average (MA) and exponential smoothing (ES)), from both bullwhip effect and forecasting accuracy point of view. Our findings show that having more accurate forecasting method is not equivalent to creating less bullwhip effect.</abstract><pub>IEEE</pub><doi>10.1109/IEEM.2008.4738197</doi><tpages>5</tpages></addata></record> |
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| source | IEEE Electronic Library (IEL) Conference Proceedings |
| subjects | Bullwhip effect Companies Costs Demand forecasting Economic forecasting Forecasting methods Industrial engineering Predictive models Smoothing methods Supply chain Supply chain management Supply chains Time series Virtual manufacturing |
| title | A simulation study on the impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect in the supply chain |
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