Improvement of the Quality of the Sea Passenger Terminal Based on Methods of Forecasting

Modern processes in the world economy directly affect the development and changes in sea passenger ports and their infrastructure. The principles of organization of the "city - sea passenger port" system are changing and becoming more complex. Recently there has been a significant increase in passenger traffic and cruise ship and ferry traffic in Baltic Sea. Since these objects are complex technical systems consisting of many elements, in their study it is necessary to use the system approach, to solve the problem of structure synthesis and the determination of objective functions. The objective of this publication was to study how the forecast for the development of demand for sea passenger ports (number cruise ships and passengers flow for next year) could be done by combining simulation and forecast functions. These tasks depend on the qualitative construction of specialized information simulation models. Such subsystems should be used by passenger port management for both operational everyday tasks and strategic tasks. One of the main goals of the forecast is the qualitative construction of an analytical function work of the terminal that determines the passenger flow based on real data. The article considers the solution of this problem by using the method of average growth rate and polynomial extrapolation. In the article, the characteristics and infrastructural features of the passenger ports of St. Petersburg are given, and the main directions of development based on the results of simulation are considered. The paper discusses advantages of using such forecast and their introduction in the early stages of operation of the terminal. The study represents an example of analytical information used for the forecast of the terminal load, the analysis of the workload and efficiency of the organization of the marine terminal in operational tasks using analytical function based on real data.