A method of predicting adult height and obesity in long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Short stature and obesity have been reported among long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL). We examined factors that contribute to these adverse sequelae. Serial height and weight measurements were analyzed for 91 long-term survivors who were treated for ALL between 1967 and 1975 at a single institution. These patients were all younger than 12 years at diagnosis, were in continuous complete remission, had reached final height, and had height and weight measurements within 1 year of age 18 years. They had received craniospinal (n = 33) or cranial irradiation (n = 58) to total doses of 24 Gy as CNS prophylaxis. Standard deviation scores (SDS) were used to reflect the deviation of height and weight measurements from population means, and the body mass index (BMI; weight divided by height squared) was used in assessing obesity at age 18 years. Short stature (less than fifth percentile) was seen in 41 patients (45%), and obesity (BMI greater than or equal to 24 kg/m2) in 35 (38%). Regression formulae were developed that explain 65% and 62% of the variability in patient height and BMI, respectively. Risk factors were identified for abnormally short stature, which was defined to be a decrease of 1.5 SDS in height from diagnosis to age 18 years. These factors include younger age and above-average height for age at diagnosis (height SDS greater than 0), craniospinal irradiation, and greater decrease in height SDS during antileukemic therapy. Risk factors for obesity at age 18 years include weight SDS greater than 0 and greater than height SDS at 1 year after the end of chemotherapy.