Improvement of Probabilistic Models for Prediction of Missile-Impact Effects on Reinforced Concrete Protective Panels Using an Experimental and Numerical Database

AbstractTo protect against military invasions and terrorist attacks requires the development of probabilistic models for predicting the effect of various local hard-missile impact effects on reinforced concrete (RC) protective panels. Because of the severity and irreversible repercussions of such events, the current work enhanced previously developed finite element calculations with the addition of experimental data from the literature. The improved model predicts the probabilistic models more accurately than the previous ones, and minimizes statistical uncertainty due to the incorporation of fresh data. The parameters investigated in the study were the penetration depth of the missile, perforation limit of the target, missile ballistic limit, and residual velocity of the missile. Among the components are residential slabs, bunkers, containments, aircraft shelters, and storage tanks. These models were built using probabilistic approaches and the Bayesian method. All aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties involved in missile impact contact with the target, geometrical configurations, material qualities, and measurement mistakes are accounted for by the updated formulas. These models also take into consideration strain-rate effect, multimodal response of the structure, and numerous failure mode transitions, among other things. An assessment with experimental findings was carried out to establish the dependability and credibility of the updated equations, and the acquired results demonstrate the trustworthiness of the anticipated formulas. This study accommodates natural disasters and accidental events such as windborne missiles, and impacts due to pressure pipes debris, iron rods, etc.