Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa
Climate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in West and Central Africa through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem ser...
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description | Climate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in West and Central Africa through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study, we examine the potential impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems by the mid-21st century in West and Central Africa, as well as the uncertainties in the different climate-impact modelling pathways. Simulations from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4) are evaluated and subsequently bias-corrected using a nonparametric trend-preserving quantile mapping approach. We then use two conceptual hydrological models (GR2M and IHACRES), and a regression-based model built upon multi-timescale sea surface temperatures and streamflow teleconnections, to understand hydrological processes at the subcontinental scale and provide hydrological predictions for the near-term future (2020–2050) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The results highlight a zonal contrast in future precipitation between western (dry) and eastern (wet) Sahel, and a robust signal in rising temperature, suggesting an increase in potential evapotranspiration, across the multi-model ensemble. Overall, across the region, a significant increase in discharge (~ + 5%) is expected by the mid-21st century, albeit with high uncertainties reported over most of Central Equatorial Africa inherent to climate models and gridded observation data quality. Interestingly, in this region, teleconnections-based regression models tend to be an alternative to hydrological models. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7 |
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Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study, we examine the potential impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems by the mid-21st century in West and Central Africa, as well as the uncertainties in the different climate-impact modelling pathways. Simulations from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4) are evaluated and subsequently bias-corrected using a nonparametric trend-preserving quantile mapping approach. We then use two conceptual hydrological models (GR2M and IHACRES), and a regression-based model built upon multi-timescale sea surface temperatures and streamflow teleconnections, to understand hydrological processes at the subcontinental scale and provide hydrological predictions for the near-term future (2020–2050) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The results highlight a zonal contrast in future precipitation between western (dry) and eastern (wet) Sahel, and a robust signal in rising temperature, suggesting an increase in potential evapotranspiration, across the multi-model ensemble. Overall, across the region, a significant increase in discharge (~ + 5%) is expected by the mid-21st century, albeit with high uncertainties reported over most of Central Equatorial Africa inherent to climate models and gridded observation data quality. Interestingly, in this region, teleconnections-based regression models tend to be an alternative to hydrological models.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0930-7575</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1432-0894</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>21st century ; Aquatic resources ; Canada ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Climatology ; Computer simulation ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Economic activities ; Economic conditions ; Ecosystem services ; Ecosystems ; Environmental Sciences ; Evapotranspiration ; Evapotranspiration models ; Future precipitation ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Global Changes ; Global climate ; Global climate models ; Global temperature changes ; Hydrologic models ; Hydrologic processes ; Hydrology ; Mapping ; Oceanography ; Potential evapotranspiration ; Rain ; Rain and rainfall ; Rainfall ; Regional climate models ; Regional climates ; Regression analysis ; Regression models ; Sciences of the Universe ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Stream discharge ; Stream flow ; Streamflow ; Surface temperature ; Surface water ; Teleconnections ; Uncertainty ; United Kingdom ; Variability ; Water availability ; Water resources</subject><ispartof>Climate dynamics, 2020-02, Vol.54 (3-4), p.2041-2070</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2020 Springer</rights><rights>Climate Dynamics is a copyright of Springer, (2020). All Rights Reserved.</rights><rights>Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c501t-d0f8efd123177b8ba3f499536650b7c0c0d6c7444d06cc7cf9fc869c08dc3d563</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c501t-d0f8efd123177b8ba3f499536650b7c0c0d6c7444d06cc7cf9fc869c08dc3d563</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-7052-1483 ; 0000-0002-5103-9306 ; 0000-0002-0081-750X</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,27924,27925,41488,42557,51319</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://hal.science/hal-03304398$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Sidibe, Moussa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dieppois, Bastien</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Eden, Jonathan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mahé, Gil</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Amoussou, Ernest</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Anifowose, Babatunde</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Van De Wiel, Marco</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lawler, Damian</creatorcontrib><title>Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa</title><title>Climate dynamics</title><addtitle>Clim Dyn</addtitle><description>Climate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in West and Central Africa through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study, we examine the potential impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems by the mid-21st century in West and Central Africa, as well as the uncertainties in the different climate-impact modelling pathways. Simulations from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4) are evaluated and subsequently bias-corrected using a nonparametric trend-preserving quantile mapping approach. We then use two conceptual hydrological models (GR2M and IHACRES), and a regression-based model built upon multi-timescale sea surface temperatures and streamflow teleconnections, to understand hydrological processes at the subcontinental scale and provide hydrological predictions for the near-term future (2020–2050) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The results highlight a zonal contrast in future precipitation between western (dry) and eastern (wet) Sahel, and a robust signal in rising temperature, suggesting an increase in potential evapotranspiration, across the multi-model ensemble. Overall, across the region, a significant increase in discharge (~ + 5%) is expected by the mid-21st century, albeit with high uncertainties reported over most of Central Equatorial Africa inherent to climate models and gridded observation data quality. Interestingly, in this region, teleconnections-based regression models tend to be an alternative to hydrological models.</description><subject>21st century</subject><subject>Aquatic resources</subject><subject>Canada</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climate variability</subject><subject>Climatology</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Economic activities</subject><subject>Economic conditions</subject><subject>Ecosystem services</subject><subject>Ecosystems</subject><subject>Environmental Sciences</subject><subject>Evapotranspiration</subject><subject>Evapotranspiration models</subject><subject>Future precipitation</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Global Changes</subject><subject>Global climate</subject><subject>Global climate models</subject><subject>Global temperature changes</subject><subject>Hydrologic models</subject><subject>Hydrologic processes</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Mapping</subject><subject>Oceanography</subject><subject>Potential evapotranspiration</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rain and rainfall</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Regional climate models</subject><subject>Regional climates</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Sciences of the Universe</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Stream discharge</subject><subject>Stream flow</subject><subject>Streamflow</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Surface water</subject><subject>Teleconnections</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><subject>United Kingdom</subject><subject>Variability</subject><subject>Water availability</subject><subject>Water 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Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Sidibe, Moussa</au><au>Dieppois, Bastien</au><au>Eden, Jonathan</au><au>Mahé, Gil</au><au>Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel</au><au>Amoussou, Ernest</au><au>Anifowose, Babatunde</au><au>Van De Wiel, Marco</au><au>Lawler, Damian</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa</atitle><jtitle>Climate dynamics</jtitle><stitle>Clim Dyn</stitle><date>2020-02-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>54</volume><issue>3-4</issue><spage>2041</spage><epage>2070</epage><pages>2041-2070</pages><issn>0930-7575</issn><eissn>1432-0894</eissn><abstract>Climate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in West and Central Africa through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study, we examine the potential impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems by the mid-21st century in West and Central Africa, as well as the uncertainties in the different climate-impact modelling pathways. Simulations from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4) are evaluated and subsequently bias-corrected using a nonparametric trend-preserving quantile mapping approach. We then use two conceptual hydrological models (GR2M and IHACRES), and a regression-based model built upon multi-timescale sea surface temperatures and streamflow teleconnections, to understand hydrological processes at the subcontinental scale and provide hydrological predictions for the near-term future (2020–2050) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The results highlight a zonal contrast in future precipitation between western (dry) and eastern (wet) Sahel, and a robust signal in rising temperature, suggesting an increase in potential evapotranspiration, across the multi-model ensemble. Overall, across the region, a significant increase in discharge (~ + 5%) is expected by the mid-21st century, albeit with high uncertainties reported over most of Central Equatorial Africa inherent to climate models and gridded observation data quality. Interestingly, in this region, teleconnections-based regression models tend to be an alternative to hydrological models.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><doi>10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7</doi><tpages>30</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7052-1483</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5103-9306</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-750X</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | 21st century Aquatic resources Canada Climate change Climate models Climate variability Climatology Computer simulation Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Economic activities Economic conditions Ecosystem services Ecosystems Environmental Sciences Evapotranspiration Evapotranspiration models Future precipitation Geophysics/Geodesy Global Changes Global climate Global climate models Global temperature changes Hydrologic models Hydrologic processes Hydrology Mapping Oceanography Potential evapotranspiration Rain Rain and rainfall Rainfall Regional climate models Regional climates Regression analysis Regression models Sciences of the Universe Sea surface Sea surface temperature Stream discharge Stream flow Streamflow Surface temperature Surface water Teleconnections Uncertainty United Kingdom Variability Water availability Water resources |
title | Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa |
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