Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing
Stratospheric sulfate injections from explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary natural climate forcing. Improved statistical models can now capture and simulate dynamical relationships in temporal variations of binary data. Leveraging these new techniques, the presented analysis clearly indicates...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2017-03, Vol.44 (6), p.2868-2874 |
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| container_title | Geophysical research letters |
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| creator | Tuel, A. Naveau, P. Ammann, C. M. |
| description | Stratospheric sulfate injections from explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary natural climate forcing. Improved statistical models can now capture and simulate dynamical relationships in temporal variations of binary data. Leveraging these new techniques, the presented analysis clearly indicates that the number of large eruptions in the most recent records of explosive volcanism cannot be considered to be fully random. Including dynamical dependence in our models improves their ability to reproduce the historical record and thus forms a strong basis for skill in statistical prediction. Possible geophysical mechanisms behind the identified multidecadal variations are discussed, including variations in the observed length of day.
Key Points
Large explosive eruptions influencing the climate appear not to occur randomly over time
Potential driving geophysical mechanisms are discussed, notably length‐of‐day variations
First building block to stochastically simulate volcanic forcing series that could be included in future climate predictions |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/2016GL072234 |
| format | Article |
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Key Points
Large explosive eruptions influencing the climate appear not to occur randomly over time
Potential driving geophysical mechanisms are discussed, notably length‐of‐day variations
First building block to stochastically simulate volcanic forcing series that could be included in future climate predictions</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072234</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Binary data ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate models ; climate projections ; climate variability ; Computer simulation ; Continental interfaces, environment ; Data analysis ; extreme volcanic eruptions ; Geophysics ; Mathematical models ; Ocean, Atmosphere ; Photoperiods ; Probability theory ; Sciences of the Universe ; Seismology ; Simulation ; Statistical analysis ; statistical climatology ; Statistical models ; Stratosphere ; Stratospheric sulfate ; Sulfates ; Temporal variations ; Volcanic activity ; Volcanic eruptions ; volcanic forcing ; Volcanoes</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2017-03, Vol.44 (6), p.2868-2874</ispartof><rights>2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><rights>Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a5382-e1acef4c8a5821cdc0d19bf4fee590af3f67f943fc55db08547a0f16bbcf8fea3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a5382-e1acef4c8a5821cdc0d19bf4fee590af3f67f943fc55db08547a0f16bbcf8fea3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-0373-0637 ; 0000-0001-5780-0664 ; 0000-0002-7231-6210 ; 0000-0001-7610-4074</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2F2016GL072234$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2F2016GL072234$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,1416,1432,11512,27922,27923,45572,45573,46407,46466,46831,46890</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://hal.science/hal-03226915$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Tuel, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Naveau, P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ammann, C. M.</creatorcontrib><title>Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><description>Stratospheric sulfate injections from explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary natural climate forcing. Improved statistical models can now capture and simulate dynamical relationships in temporal variations of binary data. Leveraging these new techniques, the presented analysis clearly indicates that the number of large eruptions in the most recent records of explosive volcanism cannot be considered to be fully random. Including dynamical dependence in our models improves their ability to reproduce the historical record and thus forms a strong basis for skill in statistical prediction. Possible geophysical mechanisms behind the identified multidecadal variations are discussed, including variations in the observed length of day.
Key Points
Large explosive eruptions influencing the climate appear not to occur randomly over time
Potential driving geophysical mechanisms are discussed, notably length‐of‐day variations
First building block to stochastically simulate volcanic forcing series that could be included in future climate predictions</description><subject>Binary data</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>climate projections</subject><subject>climate variability</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Continental interfaces, environment</subject><subject>Data analysis</subject><subject>extreme volcanic eruptions</subject><subject>Geophysics</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Ocean, Atmosphere</subject><subject>Photoperiods</subject><subject>Probability theory</subject><subject>Sciences of the Universe</subject><subject>Seismology</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>statistical climatology</subject><subject>Statistical models</subject><subject>Stratosphere</subject><subject>Stratospheric sulfate</subject><subject>Sulfates</subject><subject>Temporal variations</subject><subject>Volcanic activity</subject><subject>Volcanic eruptions</subject><subject>volcanic forcing</subject><subject>Volcanoes</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqF0UtLAzEQAOAgCtbHzR-w4EXB6uS1mxy1aCssCD7OIc0mmppuatKt-O_dUhHxoHOZYeZjYBiEjjCcYwByQQCX4xoqQijbQgMsGRsKgGobDQBkX5Oq3EV7Oc8AgALFA3T18OpDcF0oFsk23ix9bIvoinkXlr6xRjc6FCudvF5PcuHbYhWD0a03hYvJ-Pb5AO04HbI9_Mr76Onm-nE0GdZ349vRZT3UnAoytFgb65gRmguCTWOgwXLqmLOWS9COurJyklFnOG-mIDirNDhcTqfGCWc13Uenm70vOqhF8nOdPlTUXk0ua7XuASWklJivcG9PNnaR4ltn81LNfTY2BN3a2GWFJTDCJMH8fypkRSsKkvb0-BedxS61_dFrxYH2gf9WPauEIKxXZxtlUsw5Wfd9Ega1_qb6-c2ekw1_98F-_GnV-L7mvGSEfgJLNJ4v</recordid><startdate>20170328</startdate><enddate>20170328</enddate><creator>Tuel, A.</creator><creator>Naveau, P.</creator><creator>Ammann, C. M.</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>American Geophysical Union</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>1XC</scope><scope>VOOES</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0373-0637</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5780-0664</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7231-6210</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7610-4074</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20170328</creationdate><title>Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing</title><author>Tuel, A. ; Naveau, P. ; Ammann, C. M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a5382-e1acef4c8a5821cdc0d19bf4fee590af3f67f943fc55db08547a0f16bbcf8fea3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Binary data</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>climate projections</topic><topic>climate variability</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Continental interfaces, environment</topic><topic>Data analysis</topic><topic>extreme volcanic eruptions</topic><topic>Geophysics</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Ocean, Atmosphere</topic><topic>Photoperiods</topic><topic>Probability theory</topic><topic>Sciences of the Universe</topic><topic>Seismology</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>statistical climatology</topic><topic>Statistical models</topic><topic>Stratosphere</topic><topic>Stratospheric sulfate</topic><topic>Sulfates</topic><topic>Temporal variations</topic><topic>Volcanic activity</topic><topic>Volcanic eruptions</topic><topic>volcanic forcing</topic><topic>Volcanoes</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Tuel, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Naveau, P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ammann, C. 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M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><date>2017-03-28</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>44</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>2868</spage><epage>2874</epage><pages>2868-2874</pages><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><abstract>Stratospheric sulfate injections from explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary natural climate forcing. Improved statistical models can now capture and simulate dynamical relationships in temporal variations of binary data. Leveraging these new techniques, the presented analysis clearly indicates that the number of large eruptions in the most recent records of explosive volcanism cannot be considered to be fully random. Including dynamical dependence in our models improves their ability to reproduce the historical record and thus forms a strong basis for skill in statistical prediction. Possible geophysical mechanisms behind the identified multidecadal variations are discussed, including variations in the observed length of day.
Key Points
Large explosive eruptions influencing the climate appear not to occur randomly over time
Potential driving geophysical mechanisms are discussed, notably length‐of‐day variations
First building block to stochastically simulate volcanic forcing series that could be included in future climate predictions</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1002/2016GL072234</doi><tpages>7</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0373-0637</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5780-0664</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7231-6210</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7610-4074</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | Wiley Online Library - AutoHoldings Journals; Wiley Online Library Free Content; Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Library; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals |
| subjects | Binary data Climate Climate change Climate models climate projections climate variability Computer simulation Continental interfaces, environment Data analysis extreme volcanic eruptions Geophysics Mathematical models Ocean, Atmosphere Photoperiods Probability theory Sciences of the Universe Seismology Simulation Statistical analysis statistical climatology Statistical models Stratosphere Stratospheric sulfate Sulfates Temporal variations Volcanic activity Volcanic eruptions volcanic forcing Volcanoes |
| title | Skillful prediction of multidecadal variations in volcanic forcing |
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