Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France
ABSTRACT Background: Previous studies on the number of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients in the future based on projections of population size underestimated PD burden because they did not take into account the improvement of life expectancy over time. Objective: The objective of this study was...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Movement disorders 2018-09, Vol.33 (9), p.1449-1455 |
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| creator | Wanneveich, Mathilde Moisan, Frédéric Jacqmin‐Gadda, Hélène Elbaz, Alexis Joly, Pierre |
| description | ABSTRACT
Background: Previous studies on the number of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients in the future based on projections of population size underestimated PD burden because they did not take into account the improvement of life expectancy over time.
Objective: The objective of this study was to assess PD progression from 2010 to 2030 in France in terms of prevalent patient numbers, prevalence rates, lifetime risk, and life expectancy with PD, accounting for projections of overall mortality and increased risk of death of PD patients.
Methods: To provide projections of PD burden, we applied a multistate approach considering age and calendar time to incidence and prevalence rates of PD (France 2010) based on drug claims and national demographic data.
Results: The number of PD patients will increase by ∼65% between 2010 (n = 155,000) and 2030 (n ∼ 260,000), mainly for individuals older than 65 years; the prevalence rate of PD after age 45 will increase from 0.59% in 2010 to ∼0.80% in 2030. We project an extension of ∼3 years of the life expectancy of PD patients at 65 years between 2010 (women, 14.8 years; men, 13.0 years) and 2030 (women, 17.8 years; men, 16.1 years), and a relative increase of about 10% of the lifetime risk of PD at 45 years between 2010 (women, 5.5%; men, 6.0%) and 2030 (women, 6.3%; men, 7.4%).
Conclusions: The number of PD patients is predicted to grow substantially in future years as a consequence of population aging and life expectancy improvement. The assessment of the future PD burden is an important step for planning resources needed for patient care in aging societies. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/mds.27447 |
| format | Article |
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Background: Previous studies on the number of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients in the future based on projections of population size underestimated PD burden because they did not take into account the improvement of life expectancy over time.
Objective: The objective of this study was to assess PD progression from 2010 to 2030 in France in terms of prevalent patient numbers, prevalence rates, lifetime risk, and life expectancy with PD, accounting for projections of overall mortality and increased risk of death of PD patients.
Methods: To provide projections of PD burden, we applied a multistate approach considering age and calendar time to incidence and prevalence rates of PD (France 2010) based on drug claims and national demographic data.
Results: The number of PD patients will increase by ∼65% between 2010 (n = 155,000) and 2030 (n ∼ 260,000), mainly for individuals older than 65 years; the prevalence rate of PD after age 45 will increase from 0.59% in 2010 to ∼0.80% in 2030. We project an extension of ∼3 years of the life expectancy of PD patients at 65 years between 2010 (women, 14.8 years; men, 13.0 years) and 2030 (women, 17.8 years; men, 16.1 years), and a relative increase of about 10% of the lifetime risk of PD at 45 years between 2010 (women, 5.5%; men, 6.0%) and 2030 (women, 6.3%; men, 7.4%).
Conclusions: The number of PD patients is predicted to grow substantially in future years as a consequence of population aging and life expectancy improvement. The assessment of the future PD burden is an important step for planning resources needed for patient care in aging societies. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society</description><identifier>ISSN: 0885-3185</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1531-8257</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/mds.27447</identifier><identifier>PMID: 30145805</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</publisher><subject>Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Aging ; Disease Progression ; Female ; France - epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Life expectancy ; Life Expectancy - trends ; Life Sciences ; Life span ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Movement disorders ; multistates model ; National Health Programs - statistics & numerical data ; Neurodegenerative diseases ; Parkinson Disease - epidemiology ; Parkinson Disease - mortality ; Parkinson Disease - physiopathology ; Parkinson Disease - psychology ; Parkinson's disease ; Patients ; Prevalence ; projections ; Risk Factors ; Santé publique et épidémiologie ; Sex Factors</subject><ispartof>Movement disorders, 2018-09, Vol.33 (9), p.1449-1455</ispartof><rights>2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society</rights><rights>2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.</rights><rights>Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4537-bf3d2f6f1d6bacda85d6a690a7e1501071bf71395b01b01495a48dfb0c36dba83</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4537-bf3d2f6f1d6bacda85d6a690a7e1501071bf71395b01b01495a48dfb0c36dba83</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-7063-9550 ; 0000-0003-4972-5590 ; 0000-0001-9724-5490</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2Fmds.27447$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2Fmds.27447$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30145805$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://hal.science/hal-03193026$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wanneveich, Mathilde</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moisan, Frédéric</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jacqmin‐Gadda, Hélène</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Elbaz, Alexis</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Joly, Pierre</creatorcontrib><title>Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France</title><title>Movement disorders</title><addtitle>Mov Disord</addtitle><description>ABSTRACT
Background: Previous studies on the number of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients in the future based on projections of population size underestimated PD burden because they did not take into account the improvement of life expectancy over time.
Objective: The objective of this study was to assess PD progression from 2010 to 2030 in France in terms of prevalent patient numbers, prevalence rates, lifetime risk, and life expectancy with PD, accounting for projections of overall mortality and increased risk of death of PD patients.
Methods: To provide projections of PD burden, we applied a multistate approach considering age and calendar time to incidence and prevalence rates of PD (France 2010) based on drug claims and national demographic data.
Results: The number of PD patients will increase by ∼65% between 2010 (n = 155,000) and 2030 (n ∼ 260,000), mainly for individuals older than 65 years; the prevalence rate of PD after age 45 will increase from 0.59% in 2010 to ∼0.80% in 2030. We project an extension of ∼3 years of the life expectancy of PD patients at 65 years between 2010 (women, 14.8 years; men, 13.0 years) and 2030 (women, 17.8 years; men, 16.1 years), and a relative increase of about 10% of the lifetime risk of PD at 45 years between 2010 (women, 5.5%; men, 6.0%) and 2030 (women, 6.3%; men, 7.4%).
Conclusions: The number of PD patients is predicted to grow substantially in future years as a consequence of population aging and life expectancy improvement. The assessment of the future PD burden is an important step for planning resources needed for patient care in aging societies. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society</description><subject>Age Factors</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Aging</subject><subject>Disease Progression</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>France - epidemiology</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Life expectancy</subject><subject>Life Expectancy - trends</subject><subject>Life Sciences</subject><subject>Life span</subject><subject>Longitudinal Studies</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Movement disorders</subject><subject>multistates model</subject><subject>National Health Programs - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Neurodegenerative diseases</subject><subject>Parkinson Disease - epidemiology</subject><subject>Parkinson Disease - mortality</subject><subject>Parkinson Disease - physiopathology</subject><subject>Parkinson Disease - psychology</subject><subject>Parkinson's disease</subject><subject>Patients</subject><subject>Prevalence</subject><subject>projections</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Santé publique et épidémiologie</subject><subject>Sex Factors</subject><issn>0885-3185</issn><issn>1531-8257</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2018</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp1kd9qFDEUh4NY7Fq98AUk4IUtdNpz8mcmc1mqtYUVC-p1yEwymO1Msia71b3zEXxGn8Rst1YQhAOBw3e-c8KPkBcIJwjATiebT1gjRPOIzFByrBSTzWMyA6VkxVHJffI05wUAosT6CdnngEIqkDMyXqe4cP3Kx5BpHOgyuVszutC7Yzr6wa385Gjy-eaYmmDvWtR9X5YJE_rNduLapBsfcgyvM7U-O5MdPWSA8OvHTwYcjqgP9CIV3D0je4MZs3t-_x6QzxdvP51fVvMP767Oz-ZVLyRvqm7glg31gLbuTG-NkrY2dQumcSiLuMFuaJC3sgMsJVpphLJDBz2vbWcUPyBHO-8XM-pl8pNJGx2N15dnc73tAceWA6tvsbCHO3aZ4te1yys9-dy7cTTBxXXWDFohkGGzRV_9gy7iOoXyE80QFReslfLv8j7FnJMbHi5A0Nu4dIlL38VV2Jf3xnU3OftA_smnAKc74Jsf3eb_Jv3-zced8jd8HpxK</recordid><startdate>201809</startdate><enddate>201809</enddate><creator>Wanneveich, Mathilde</creator><creator>Moisan, Frédéric</creator><creator>Jacqmin‐Gadda, Hélène</creator><creator>Elbaz, Alexis</creator><creator>Joly, Pierre</creator><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><general>Wiley</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TK</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>NAPCQ</scope><scope>P64</scope><scope>RC3</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>1XC</scope><scope>VOOES</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7063-9550</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4972-5590</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9724-5490</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>201809</creationdate><title>Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France</title><author>Wanneveich, Mathilde ; Moisan, Frédéric ; Jacqmin‐Gadda, Hélène ; Elbaz, Alexis ; Joly, Pierre</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4537-bf3d2f6f1d6bacda85d6a690a7e1501071bf71395b01b01495a48dfb0c36dba83</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2018</creationdate><topic>Age Factors</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Aging</topic><topic>Disease Progression</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>France - epidemiology</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Life expectancy</topic><topic>Life Expectancy - trends</topic><topic>Life Sciences</topic><topic>Life span</topic><topic>Longitudinal Studies</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Movement disorders</topic><topic>multistates model</topic><topic>National Health Programs - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Neurodegenerative diseases</topic><topic>Parkinson Disease - epidemiology</topic><topic>Parkinson Disease - mortality</topic><topic>Parkinson Disease - physiopathology</topic><topic>Parkinson Disease - psychology</topic><topic>Parkinson's disease</topic><topic>Patients</topic><topic>Prevalence</topic><topic>projections</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>Santé publique et épidémiologie</topic><topic>Sex Factors</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Wanneveich, Mathilde</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Moisan, Frédéric</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jacqmin‐Gadda, Hélène</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Elbaz, Alexis</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Joly, Pierre</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Neurosciences Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Nursing & Allied Health Premium</collection><collection>Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Genetics Abstracts</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL) (Open Access)</collection><jtitle>Movement disorders</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wanneveich, Mathilde</au><au>Moisan, Frédéric</au><au>Jacqmin‐Gadda, Hélène</au><au>Elbaz, Alexis</au><au>Joly, Pierre</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France</atitle><jtitle>Movement disorders</jtitle><addtitle>Mov Disord</addtitle><date>2018-09</date><risdate>2018</risdate><volume>33</volume><issue>9</issue><spage>1449</spage><epage>1455</epage><pages>1449-1455</pages><issn>0885-3185</issn><eissn>1531-8257</eissn><abstract>ABSTRACT
Background: Previous studies on the number of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients in the future based on projections of population size underestimated PD burden because they did not take into account the improvement of life expectancy over time.
Objective: The objective of this study was to assess PD progression from 2010 to 2030 in France in terms of prevalent patient numbers, prevalence rates, lifetime risk, and life expectancy with PD, accounting for projections of overall mortality and increased risk of death of PD patients.
Methods: To provide projections of PD burden, we applied a multistate approach considering age and calendar time to incidence and prevalence rates of PD (France 2010) based on drug claims and national demographic data.
Results: The number of PD patients will increase by ∼65% between 2010 (n = 155,000) and 2030 (n ∼ 260,000), mainly for individuals older than 65 years; the prevalence rate of PD after age 45 will increase from 0.59% in 2010 to ∼0.80% in 2030. We project an extension of ∼3 years of the life expectancy of PD patients at 65 years between 2010 (women, 14.8 years; men, 13.0 years) and 2030 (women, 17.8 years; men, 16.1 years), and a relative increase of about 10% of the lifetime risk of PD at 45 years between 2010 (women, 5.5%; men, 6.0%) and 2030 (women, 6.3%; men, 7.4%).
Conclusions: The number of PD patients is predicted to grow substantially in future years as a consequence of population aging and life expectancy improvement. The assessment of the future PD burden is an important step for planning resources needed for patient care in aging societies. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</pub><pmid>30145805</pmid><doi>10.1002/mds.27447</doi><tpages>7</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7063-9550</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4972-5590</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9724-5490</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Age Factors Aged Aged, 80 and over Aging Disease Progression Female France - epidemiology Humans Incidence Life expectancy Life Expectancy - trends Life Sciences Life span Longitudinal Studies Male Middle Aged Movement disorders multistates model National Health Programs - statistics & numerical data Neurodegenerative diseases Parkinson Disease - epidemiology Parkinson Disease - mortality Parkinson Disease - physiopathology Parkinson Disease - psychology Parkinson's disease Patients Prevalence projections Risk Factors Santé publique et épidémiologie Sex Factors |
| title | Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France |
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