Impact of Multiscale Variability on Last 6,000 Years Indian and West African Monsoon Rain
Particularly dry or wet boreal summer monsoon seasons are major hazards affecting societal vulnerability in India and Africa. Several factors affect monsoon rainfall amount and limit the understanding of possible linkages between monsoon variability and mean climate changes. Here we characterize the...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2019-12, Vol.46 (23), p.14021-14029 |
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| creator | Braconnot, P. Crétat, J. Marti, O. Balkanski, Y. Caubel, A. Cozic, A. Foujols, M.‐A. Sanogo, S. |
| description | Particularly dry or wet boreal summer monsoon seasons are major hazards affecting societal vulnerability in India and Africa. Several factors affect monsoon rainfall amount and limit the understanding of possible linkages between monsoon variability and mean climate changes. Here we characterize the multiscale variability of Indian and West African monsoon rain from two simulations of the last 6,000 years. Changes in Earth's orbit cause long‐term monsoon drying trend in India and Africa, but the Indian monsoon is more sensitive to anthropogenic CO2. Variability is characterized by two major ranges of chaotic variability, each related to specific ocean‐atmosphere modes present throughout the period. Combination of random 50‐ to 500‐ and 2‐ to 20‐year variability leads to large events occurring at millennium scale. However, the two regions exhibit opposite trends in rainfall variability due to changes in teleconnection with Pacific sea surface temperature for India and Atlantic sea surface temperature for West Africa at interannual to decadal timescales.
Key Points
Indian monsoon rainfall is more sensitive than West African monsoon rainfall to CO2
Two major bands of chaotic variability, 2–20 years and 50–500 years, affect Indian and West African monsoon variability of the last 6,000 years
Opposite Holocene variability trends in Indian and African monsoon are due to interannual and not centennial variability linkages with mean state |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2019GL084797 |
| format | Article |
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Key Points
Indian monsoon rainfall is more sensitive than West African monsoon rainfall to CO2
Two major bands of chaotic variability, 2–20 years and 50–500 years, affect Indian and West African monsoon variability of the last 6,000 years
Opposite Holocene variability trends in Indian and African monsoon are due to interannual and not centennial variability linkages with mean state</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084797</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>African monsoon ; Anthropogenic factors ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Climatology ; Drying ; Earth ; Earth orbits ; Earth Sciences ; Earth system modeling ; Human influences ; Monsoon ; Monsoon climates ; Monsoon rainfall ; Monsoons ; multiscall variability ; paleoclimate ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Rainfall amount ; Rainfall simulators ; Rainfall variability ; Sciences of the Universe ; Sea surface ; Sea surface temperature ; Summer monsoon ; Surface temperature ; Variability ; Vulnerability ; Wind</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2019-12, Vol.46 (23), p.14021-14029</ispartof><rights>2019. The Authors.</rights><rights>2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><rights>Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a4018-9f8f227c535b790adc8c2b63e9a6b0681904fbc36507de149b5bb680f3bd2a013</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a4018-9f8f227c535b790adc8c2b63e9a6b0681904fbc36507de149b5bb680f3bd2a013</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-8241-2858 ; 0000-0001-5176-0593 ; 0000-0002-9747-4928</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029%2F2019GL084797$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029%2F2019GL084797$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,1411,1427,11493,27901,27902,45550,45551,46384,46443,46808,46867</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://hal.science/hal-02615396$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Braconnot, P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Crétat, J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marti, O.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Balkanski, Y.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Caubel, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cozic, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Foujols, M.‐A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sanogo, S.</creatorcontrib><title>Impact of Multiscale Variability on Last 6,000 Years Indian and West African Monsoon Rain</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><description>Particularly dry or wet boreal summer monsoon seasons are major hazards affecting societal vulnerability in India and Africa. Several factors affect monsoon rainfall amount and limit the understanding of possible linkages between monsoon variability and mean climate changes. Here we characterize the multiscale variability of Indian and West African monsoon rain from two simulations of the last 6,000 years. Changes in Earth's orbit cause long‐term monsoon drying trend in India and Africa, but the Indian monsoon is more sensitive to anthropogenic CO2. Variability is characterized by two major ranges of chaotic variability, each related to specific ocean‐atmosphere modes present throughout the period. Combination of random 50‐ to 500‐ and 2‐ to 20‐year variability leads to large events occurring at millennium scale. However, the two regions exhibit opposite trends in rainfall variability due to changes in teleconnection with Pacific sea surface temperature for India and Atlantic sea surface temperature for West Africa at interannual to decadal timescales.
Key Points
Indian monsoon rainfall is more sensitive than West African monsoon rainfall to CO2
Two major bands of chaotic variability, 2–20 years and 50–500 years, affect Indian and West African monsoon variability of the last 6,000 years
Opposite Holocene variability trends in Indian and African monsoon are due to interannual and not centennial variability linkages with mean state</description><subject>African monsoon</subject><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Carbon dioxide</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate variability</subject><subject>Climatology</subject><subject>Drying</subject><subject>Earth</subject><subject>Earth orbits</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earth system modeling</subject><subject>Human influences</subject><subject>Monsoon</subject><subject>Monsoon climates</subject><subject>Monsoon rainfall</subject><subject>Monsoons</subject><subject>multiscall variability</subject><subject>paleoclimate</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Rainfall amount</subject><subject>Rainfall simulators</subject><subject>Rainfall variability</subject><subject>Sciences of the Universe</subject><subject>Sea surface</subject><subject>Sea surface temperature</subject><subject>Summer monsoon</subject><subject>Surface temperature</subject><subject>Variability</subject><subject>Vulnerability</subject><subject>Wind</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2019</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kM1LAzEQxYMoWKs3_4CAJ6HVSbKbTY6laFvYIhQ_6ClM9gNTtrs1aZX-96ZUxJOnGWZ-7_F4hFwzuGPA9T0Hpic5qCTT2QnpMZ0kQwWQnZIegI47z-Q5uQhhBQACBOuR5Wy9wWJLu5rOd83WhQKbir6id2hd47Z72rU0x7ClchBFdFmhD3TWlg5bim1J36r4G9XeFfEw79rQRcECXXtJzmpsQnX1M_vk5fHheTwd5k-T2XiUDzEBpoa6VjXnWZGK1GYasCxUwa0UlUZpQSqmIaltIWQKWVmxRNvUWqmgFrbkCEz0ye3R9x0bs_FujX5vOnRmOsrN4QZcslRo-Xlgb47sxncfu5jcrLqdb2M8w4XgnDHJskgNjlThuxB8Vf_aMjCHos3foiPOj_iXa6r9v6yZLPJUK63EN5w9e2c</recordid><startdate>20191216</startdate><enddate>20191216</enddate><creator>Braconnot, P.</creator><creator>Crétat, J.</creator><creator>Marti, O.</creator><creator>Balkanski, Y.</creator><creator>Caubel, A.</creator><creator>Cozic, A.</creator><creator>Foujols, M.‐A.</creator><creator>Sanogo, S.</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>American Geophysical Union</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>1XC</scope><scope>VOOES</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8241-2858</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5176-0593</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9747-4928</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20191216</creationdate><title>Impact of Multiscale Variability on Last 6,000 Years Indian and West African Monsoon Rain</title><author>Braconnot, P. ; Crétat, J. ; Marti, O. ; Balkanski, Y. ; Caubel, A. ; Cozic, A. ; Foujols, M.‐A. ; Sanogo, S.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a4018-9f8f227c535b790adc8c2b63e9a6b0681904fbc36507de149b5bb680f3bd2a013</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2019</creationdate><topic>African monsoon</topic><topic>Anthropogenic factors</topic><topic>Carbon dioxide</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate variability</topic><topic>Climatology</topic><topic>Drying</topic><topic>Earth</topic><topic>Earth orbits</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Earth system modeling</topic><topic>Human influences</topic><topic>Monsoon</topic><topic>Monsoon climates</topic><topic>Monsoon rainfall</topic><topic>Monsoons</topic><topic>multiscall variability</topic><topic>paleoclimate</topic><topic>Rain</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Rainfall amount</topic><topic>Rainfall simulators</topic><topic>Rainfall variability</topic><topic>Sciences of the Universe</topic><topic>Sea surface</topic><topic>Sea surface temperature</topic><topic>Summer monsoon</topic><topic>Surface temperature</topic><topic>Variability</topic><topic>Vulnerability</topic><topic>Wind</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Braconnot, P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Crétat, J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marti, O.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Balkanski, Y.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Caubel, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cozic, A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Foujols, M.‐A.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sanogo, S.</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley Online Library Open Access</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL) (Open Access)</collection><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Braconnot, P.</au><au>Crétat, J.</au><au>Marti, O.</au><au>Balkanski, Y.</au><au>Caubel, A.</au><au>Cozic, A.</au><au>Foujols, M.‐A.</au><au>Sanogo, S.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Impact of Multiscale Variability on Last 6,000 Years Indian and West African Monsoon Rain</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><date>2019-12-16</date><risdate>2019</risdate><volume>46</volume><issue>23</issue><spage>14021</spage><epage>14029</epage><pages>14021-14029</pages><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><abstract>Particularly dry or wet boreal summer monsoon seasons are major hazards affecting societal vulnerability in India and Africa. Several factors affect monsoon rainfall amount and limit the understanding of possible linkages between monsoon variability and mean climate changes. Here we characterize the multiscale variability of Indian and West African monsoon rain from two simulations of the last 6,000 years. Changes in Earth's orbit cause long‐term monsoon drying trend in India and Africa, but the Indian monsoon is more sensitive to anthropogenic CO2. Variability is characterized by two major ranges of chaotic variability, each related to specific ocean‐atmosphere modes present throughout the period. Combination of random 50‐ to 500‐ and 2‐ to 20‐year variability leads to large events occurring at millennium scale. However, the two regions exhibit opposite trends in rainfall variability due to changes in teleconnection with Pacific sea surface temperature for India and Atlantic sea surface temperature for West Africa at interannual to decadal timescales.
Key Points
Indian monsoon rainfall is more sensitive than West African monsoon rainfall to CO2
Two major bands of chaotic variability, 2–20 years and 50–500 years, affect Indian and West African monsoon variability of the last 6,000 years
Opposite Holocene variability trends in Indian and African monsoon are due to interannual and not centennial variability linkages with mean state</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1029/2019GL084797</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8241-2858</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5176-0593</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9747-4928</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Geophysical research letters, 2019-12, Vol.46 (23), p.14021-14029 |
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| source | Wiley Free Content; Wiley-Blackwell AGU Digital Library; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals |
| subjects | African monsoon Anthropogenic factors Carbon dioxide Climate change Climate variability Climatology Drying Earth Earth orbits Earth Sciences Earth system modeling Human influences Monsoon Monsoon climates Monsoon rainfall Monsoons multiscall variability paleoclimate Rain Rainfall Rainfall amount Rainfall simulators Rainfall variability Sciences of the Universe Sea surface Sea surface temperature Summer monsoon Surface temperature Variability Vulnerability Wind |
| title | Impact of Multiscale Variability on Last 6,000 Years Indian and West African Monsoon Rain |
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