Global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and peak oil: A behavioural model
We develop a stochastic decision model to analyse the global competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy. It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind. These differ not only in pollution intensities but also in profitability and innovation potential. The model accounts for the effect of...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Energy policy 2020-01, Vol.136, p.110907, Article 110907 |
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| creator | Zeppini, Paolo van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. |
| description | We develop a stochastic decision model to analyse the global competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy. It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind. These differ not only in pollution intensities but also in profitability and innovation potential. The model accounts for the effect of learning curves, path-dependence and climate policies. Adoption shares endogenously affect agents' utility through increasing returns to adoption, learning, and a ‘peak oil’ capacity constraint. We find that peak oil induces a transition to coal rather than renewable energy, which worsens climate change. By introducing climate policies - such as a carbon tax, market adoption or R&D subsidies for renewables, and eliminating existing subsidies for fossil fuels - we identify potential transition patterns to a low-carbon energy system. Model analysis clarifies two main features of climate policies: which ones solve the climate problem, i.e. do not surpass the critical carbon budget; and how uncertain or variable are final market shares of energy sources.
•We develop a global model for competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewables.•It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind, increasing returns and learning.•Peak-oil induces a transition to coal, worsening climate change.•We study a carbon tax, adoption/R&D subsidies, and removing fossil fuel subsidies.•Results clarify policy mix stabilizing climate and final market shares variation. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110907 |
| format | Article |
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•We develop a global model for competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewables.•It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind, increasing returns and learning.•Peak-oil induces a transition to coal, worsening climate change.•We study a carbon tax, adoption/R&D subsidies, and removing fossil fuel subsidies.•Results clarify policy mix stabilizing climate and final market shares variation.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0301-4215</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-6777</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110907</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Alternative energy ; Carbon ; Clean energy ; Climate change ; Climate policy ; Coal ; Competition ; Decision analysis ; Economics ; Economics and Finance ; Energy ; Energy policy ; Energy sources ; Environmental policy ; Environmental tax ; Externalities ; Fossil fuels ; Fuels ; Humanities and Social Sciences ; Innovations ; Learning ; Learning curves ; Market shares ; Markets ; Oil ; Peak oil ; Petroleum ; Policy making ; Pollution ; Profitability ; R&D ; Renewable energy ; Renewable resources ; Research & development ; Stochasticity ; Subsidies ; Taxation</subject><ispartof>Energy policy, 2020-01, Vol.136, p.110907, Article 110907</ispartof><rights>2019 Elsevier Ltd</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Jan 2020</rights><rights>Attribution - NonCommercial</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c443t-d330e98c4cb25ae9270559fd3e31a24fb3737009c270aac62c0384f35c01030a3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c443t-d330e98c4cb25ae9270559fd3e31a24fb3737009c270aac62c0384f35c01030a3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-1630-9462</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110907$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,3550,4024,27866,27923,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://hal.science/hal-02394882$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Zeppini, Paolo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.</creatorcontrib><title>Global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and peak oil: A behavioural model</title><title>Energy policy</title><description>We develop a stochastic decision model to analyse the global competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy. It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind. These differ not only in pollution intensities but also in profitability and innovation potential. The model accounts for the effect of learning curves, path-dependence and climate policies. Adoption shares endogenously affect agents' utility through increasing returns to adoption, learning, and a ‘peak oil’ capacity constraint. We find that peak oil induces a transition to coal rather than renewable energy, which worsens climate change. By introducing climate policies - such as a carbon tax, market adoption or R&D subsidies for renewables, and eliminating existing subsidies for fossil fuels - we identify potential transition patterns to a low-carbon energy system. Model analysis clarifies two main features of climate policies: which ones solve the climate problem, i.e. do not surpass the critical carbon budget; and how uncertain or variable are final market shares of energy sources.
•We develop a global model for competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewables.•It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind, increasing returns and learning.•Peak-oil induces a transition to coal, worsening climate change.•We study a carbon tax, adoption/R&D subsidies, and removing fossil fuel subsidies.•Results clarify policy mix stabilizing climate and final market shares variation.</description><subject>Alternative energy</subject><subject>Carbon</subject><subject>Clean energy</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate policy</subject><subject>Coal</subject><subject>Competition</subject><subject>Decision analysis</subject><subject>Economics</subject><subject>Economics and Finance</subject><subject>Energy</subject><subject>Energy policy</subject><subject>Energy sources</subject><subject>Environmental policy</subject><subject>Environmental tax</subject><subject>Externalities</subject><subject>Fossil fuels</subject><subject>Fuels</subject><subject>Humanities and Social Sciences</subject><subject>Innovations</subject><subject>Learning</subject><subject>Learning curves</subject><subject>Market shares</subject><subject>Markets</subject><subject>Oil</subject><subject>Peak oil</subject><subject>Petroleum</subject><subject>Policy making</subject><subject>Pollution</subject><subject>Profitability</subject><subject>R&D</subject><subject>Renewable energy</subject><subject>Renewable resources</subject><subject>Research & development</subject><subject>Stochasticity</subject><subject>Subsidies</subject><subject>Taxation</subject><issn>0301-4215</issn><issn>1873-6777</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2020</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7TQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kTtPwzAUhS0EEqXwC1gsMTGkXD_SJEgMFeIlVWKB2XKcG3Bx42CnRf33uAQxMtmyv3N9fA4h5wxmDNj8ajXDrvduxoFVM8agguKATFhZiGxeFMUhmYAAlknO8mNyEuMKAGRZyQnZPThfa0eNX_c42MH6jja7Tq-tidS3tPUxWkfbDbpIddfQgB1-6dohTZvwtqObrsFAjbNrPSBNLqyxOLI96g_qrbumC1rju95avwnpsbVv0J2So1a7iGe_65S83t-93D5my-eHp9vFMjNSiiFrhACsSiNNzXONFS8gz6u2ESiY5rKtRSEKgMqkC63NnBsQpWxFboClT2sxJZfj3HftVB-SzbBTXlv1uFiq_RlwUcmy5FuW2IuR7YP_3GAc1Co57pI9xUUu5oxxzhMlRsqElE7A9m8sA7XvQ63UTx9q34ca-0iqm1GVksStxaBiCqoz2NiAZlCNt__qvwH6yZRF</recordid><startdate>202001</startdate><enddate>202001</enddate><creator>Zeppini, Paolo</creator><creator>van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier Science Ltd</general><general>Elsevier</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SP</scope><scope>7TA</scope><scope>7TB</scope><scope>7TQ</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>DHY</scope><scope>DON</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>JG9</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>1XC</scope><scope>BXJBU</scope><scope>IHQJB</scope><scope>VOOES</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1630-9462</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202001</creationdate><title>Global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and peak oil: A behavioural model</title><author>Zeppini, Paolo ; van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c443t-d330e98c4cb25ae9270559fd3e31a24fb3737009c270aac62c0384f35c01030a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Alternative energy</topic><topic>Carbon</topic><topic>Clean energy</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate policy</topic><topic>Coal</topic><topic>Competition</topic><topic>Decision analysis</topic><topic>Economics</topic><topic>Economics and Finance</topic><topic>Energy</topic><topic>Energy policy</topic><topic>Energy sources</topic><topic>Environmental policy</topic><topic>Environmental tax</topic><topic>Externalities</topic><topic>Fossil fuels</topic><topic>Fuels</topic><topic>Humanities and Social Sciences</topic><topic>Innovations</topic><topic>Learning</topic><topic>Learning curves</topic><topic>Market shares</topic><topic>Markets</topic><topic>Oil</topic><topic>Peak oil</topic><topic>Petroleum</topic><topic>Policy making</topic><topic>Pollution</topic><topic>Profitability</topic><topic>R&D</topic><topic>Renewable energy</topic><topic>Renewable resources</topic><topic>Research & development</topic><topic>Stochasticity</topic><topic>Subsidies</topic><topic>Taxation</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zeppini, Paolo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Electronics & Communications Abstracts</collection><collection>Materials Business File</collection><collection>Mechanical & Transportation Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>PAIS Index</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>PAIS International</collection><collection>PAIS International (Ovid)</collection><collection>ANTE: Abstracts in New Technology & Engineering</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Materials Research Database</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><collection>HAL-SHS: Archive ouverte en Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société</collection><collection>HAL-SHS: Archive ouverte en Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (Open Access)</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL) (Open Access)</collection><jtitle>Energy policy</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Zeppini, Paolo</au><au>van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and peak oil: A behavioural model</atitle><jtitle>Energy policy</jtitle><date>2020-01</date><risdate>2020</risdate><volume>136</volume><spage>110907</spage><pages>110907-</pages><artnum>110907</artnum><issn>0301-4215</issn><eissn>1873-6777</eissn><abstract>We develop a stochastic decision model to analyse the global competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy. It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind. These differ not only in pollution intensities but also in profitability and innovation potential. The model accounts for the effect of learning curves, path-dependence and climate policies. Adoption shares endogenously affect agents' utility through increasing returns to adoption, learning, and a ‘peak oil’ capacity constraint. We find that peak oil induces a transition to coal rather than renewable energy, which worsens climate change. By introducing climate policies - such as a carbon tax, market adoption or R&D subsidies for renewables, and eliminating existing subsidies for fossil fuels - we identify potential transition patterns to a low-carbon energy system. Model analysis clarifies two main features of climate policies: which ones solve the climate problem, i.e. do not surpass the critical carbon budget; and how uncertain or variable are final market shares of energy sources.
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| ispartof | Energy policy, 2020-01, Vol.136, p.110907, Article 110907 |
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| subjects | Alternative energy Carbon Clean energy Climate change Climate policy Coal Competition Decision analysis Economics Economics and Finance Energy Energy policy Energy sources Environmental policy Environmental tax Externalities Fossil fuels Fuels Humanities and Social Sciences Innovations Learning Learning curves Market shares Markets Oil Peak oil Petroleum Policy making Pollution Profitability R&D Renewable energy Renewable resources Research & development Stochasticity Subsidies Taxation |
| title | Global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and peak oil: A behavioural model |
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