Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies
•We project how climate change and fishery management strategies affect skipjack tuna fisheries (catches, prices and profits).•For 2050 and 2095 an increase of the global skipjack biomass is expected.•The eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to benefit from regional changes in biomass distribution.•A M...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Global environmental change 2016-11, Vol.41, p.1-12 |
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| creator | Dueri, Sibylle Guillotreau, Patrice Jiménez-Toribio, Ramón Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo Bopp, Laurent Maury, Olivier |
| description | •We project how climate change and fishery management strategies affect skipjack tuna fisheries (catches, prices and profits).•For 2050 and 2095 an increase of the global skipjack biomass is expected.•The eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to benefit from regional changes in biomass distribution.•A MEY strategy increases profits, but leads to low catches and high prices.•Key factors are: climate change, technological change and demand for tuna (driven by the population and economic growth).
We investigate the interactions between anthropogenic climate change, socioeconomic developments and tuna fishery management strategies. For this purpose, we use the APECOSM-E model to map the effects of climate change and commercial fishing on the distribution of skipjack tuna biomass in the three oceans, combined with a new bioeconomic module representing the rent or profit of skipjack fisheries. For forcing, we use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the highest emission scenario for greenhouse gas concentrations presented in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and the IPCC Socioeconomic Shared Pathway (SSP) 3, which is characterized by low economic development and a strong increase in the world population. We first investigate the impact of climate change on regional skipjack abundance, catches and profits in three oceans (Atlantic, Indian and Pacific) in 2010, 2050 and 2095. We then study the effects of three management strategies (maximum sustainable yield or MSY, maximum economic yield or MEY, and zero rent or ZR) on the future distribution of fishing fleets between oceans and on global economic rent.
Our model projections for 2050 and 2095 show an increase in global skipjack biomass compared to 2010 and major changes in its distribution, impacting local and regional fishing efforts. The Pacific Ocean will continue to dominate the skipjack market.
In our modeling of management strategies, the currently predominant MSY strategy would have been unprofitable in 2010, due to a decreased catch per unit effort (CPUE). In the future, however, technological developments should increase fishing efficiency and make MSY profitable.
In all the scenarios, a MEY strategy is more profitable than MSY but leads to the lowest catches and the highest prices. This raises ethical questions in a world where food security may become a top priority.
In the scenarios where MSY generates an economic loss (e.g. 2010), a ZR strategy allows global stocks to be exploited at h |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.003 |
| format | Article |
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We investigate the interactions between anthropogenic climate change, socioeconomic developments and tuna fishery management strategies. For this purpose, we use the APECOSM-E model to map the effects of climate change and commercial fishing on the distribution of skipjack tuna biomass in the three oceans, combined with a new bioeconomic module representing the rent or profit of skipjack fisheries. For forcing, we use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the highest emission scenario for greenhouse gas concentrations presented in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and the IPCC Socioeconomic Shared Pathway (SSP) 3, which is characterized by low economic development and a strong increase in the world population. We first investigate the impact of climate change on regional skipjack abundance, catches and profits in three oceans (Atlantic, Indian and Pacific) in 2010, 2050 and 2095. We then study the effects of three management strategies (maximum sustainable yield or MSY, maximum economic yield or MEY, and zero rent or ZR) on the future distribution of fishing fleets between oceans and on global economic rent.
Our model projections for 2050 and 2095 show an increase in global skipjack biomass compared to 2010 and major changes in its distribution, impacting local and regional fishing efforts. The Pacific Ocean will continue to dominate the skipjack market.
In our modeling of management strategies, the currently predominant MSY strategy would have been unprofitable in 2010, due to a decreased catch per unit effort (CPUE). In the future, however, technological developments should increase fishing efficiency and make MSY profitable.
In all the scenarios, a MEY strategy is more profitable than MSY but leads to the lowest catches and the highest prices. This raises ethical questions in a world where food security may become a top priority.
In the scenarios where MSY generates an economic loss (e.g. 2010), a ZR strategy allows global stocks to be exploited at high but still profitable levels. Conversely, in the scenarios where MSY is profitable, (e.g. 2095) ZR leads to overfishing and smaller global catches.
We conclude that the most appropriate management strategy at any time is likely to change as environmental and socioeconomic conditions evolve. The decision to follow one or other strategy is a complex one that must be regularly reviewed and updated.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0959-3780</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1872-9495</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.003</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Anthropogenic factors ; Bioeconomic model ; Biomass ; Climate change ; Climate effects ; Commercial fishing ; Continental interfaces, environment ; Economic development ; Economic factors ; Economic models ; Economics ; Emissions ; Environmental changes ; Environmental impact ; Environmental management ; Ethics ; Fisheries ; Fisheries management ; Fishery economics ; Fishery management ; Fishing ; Food ; Food prices ; Food safety ; Food security ; Greenhouse effect ; Greenhouse gases ; Human influences ; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; Katsuwonus pelamis ; Management ; Management decisions ; Management development ; MEY ; MSY ; Ocean models ; Ocean, Atmosphere ; Oceans ; Overfishing ; Profitability ; Profits ; Projections ; Sciences of the Universe ; Security ; Skipjack tuna ; Social aspects ; Socioeconomic factors ; Socioeconomics ; Strategy ; Sustainable yield ; Thunnus ; Trade ; Tuna ; World population</subject><ispartof>Global environmental change, 2016-11, Vol.41, p.1-12</ispartof><rights>2016 Elsevier Ltd</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Nov 2016</rights><rights>Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c476t-c4d493c1726a11f0f9569f691d3173fc8e7267cc68593ef124fe7569838b9bc53</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c476t-c4d493c1726a11f0f9569f691d3173fc8e7267cc68593ef124fe7569838b9bc53</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-3083-1230 ; 0000-0003-4732-4953</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.003$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,780,784,885,3550,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://hal.science/hal-01587553$$DView record in HAL$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Dueri, Sibylle</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guillotreau, Patrice</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiménez-Toribio, Ramón</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bopp, Laurent</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maury, Olivier</creatorcontrib><title>Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies</title><title>Global environmental change</title><description>•We project how climate change and fishery management strategies affect skipjack tuna fisheries (catches, prices and profits).•For 2050 and 2095 an increase of the global skipjack biomass is expected.•The eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to benefit from regional changes in biomass distribution.•A MEY strategy increases profits, but leads to low catches and high prices.•Key factors are: climate change, technological change and demand for tuna (driven by the population and economic growth).
We investigate the interactions between anthropogenic climate change, socioeconomic developments and tuna fishery management strategies. For this purpose, we use the APECOSM-E model to map the effects of climate change and commercial fishing on the distribution of skipjack tuna biomass in the three oceans, combined with a new bioeconomic module representing the rent or profit of skipjack fisheries. For forcing, we use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the highest emission scenario for greenhouse gas concentrations presented in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and the IPCC Socioeconomic Shared Pathway (SSP) 3, which is characterized by low economic development and a strong increase in the world population. We first investigate the impact of climate change on regional skipjack abundance, catches and profits in three oceans (Atlantic, Indian and Pacific) in 2010, 2050 and 2095. We then study the effects of three management strategies (maximum sustainable yield or MSY, maximum economic yield or MEY, and zero rent or ZR) on the future distribution of fishing fleets between oceans and on global economic rent.
Our model projections for 2050 and 2095 show an increase in global skipjack biomass compared to 2010 and major changes in its distribution, impacting local and regional fishing efforts. The Pacific Ocean will continue to dominate the skipjack market.
In our modeling of management strategies, the currently predominant MSY strategy would have been unprofitable in 2010, due to a decreased catch per unit effort (CPUE). In the future, however, technological developments should increase fishing efficiency and make MSY profitable.
In all the scenarios, a MEY strategy is more profitable than MSY but leads to the lowest catches and the highest prices. This raises ethical questions in a world where food security may become a top priority.
In the scenarios where MSY generates an economic loss (e.g. 2010), a ZR strategy allows global stocks to be exploited at high but still profitable levels. Conversely, in the scenarios where MSY is profitable, (e.g. 2095) ZR leads to overfishing and smaller global catches.
We conclude that the most appropriate management strategy at any time is likely to change as environmental and socioeconomic conditions evolve. The decision to follow one or other strategy is a complex one that must be regularly reviewed and updated.</description><subject>Anthropogenic factors</subject><subject>Bioeconomic model</subject><subject>Biomass</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Commercial fishing</subject><subject>Continental interfaces, environment</subject><subject>Economic development</subject><subject>Economic factors</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Economics</subject><subject>Emissions</subject><subject>Environmental changes</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>Environmental management</subject><subject>Ethics</subject><subject>Fisheries</subject><subject>Fisheries management</subject><subject>Fishery economics</subject><subject>Fishery management</subject><subject>Fishing</subject><subject>Food</subject><subject>Food prices</subject><subject>Food safety</subject><subject>Food security</subject><subject>Greenhouse effect</subject><subject>Greenhouse gases</subject><subject>Human influences</subject><subject>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</subject><subject>Katsuwonus pelamis</subject><subject>Management</subject><subject>Management decisions</subject><subject>Management development</subject><subject>MEY</subject><subject>MSY</subject><subject>Ocean models</subject><subject>Ocean, Atmosphere</subject><subject>Oceans</subject><subject>Overfishing</subject><subject>Profitability</subject><subject>Profits</subject><subject>Projections</subject><subject>Sciences of the Universe</subject><subject>Security</subject><subject>Skipjack tuna</subject><subject>Social aspects</subject><subject>Socioeconomic factors</subject><subject>Socioeconomics</subject><subject>Strategy</subject><subject>Sustainable yield</subject><subject>Thunnus</subject><subject>Trade</subject><subject>Tuna</subject><subject>World population</subject><issn>0959-3780</issn><issn>1872-9495</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2016</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqNksGO0zAQhiMEEmXhGbDEBQ4tdhzH9glVK5ZFqgQHOFuuM06dTexiJ5X2jXhMpirqgQvrgy2Pv_n1z3iq6i2jG0ZZ-3HY9GOCeHIHu6kxsKFqQyl_Vq2YkvVaN1o8r1ZUC73mUtGX1atSBopLc76qft-l1JECbslhfiQpE3Appik4cszJh9nuw4gvn8j3nAZwc4g9mQ9AwHu8FZI8cWOY7AzERlRKLqSrBHqKPSAUCZrc25GUh3AcrHsg8xIt8aEcIAcklthBRuEMQCYbbQ8TxJmUOaNyj8Tr6oW3Y4E3f8-b6ufd5x-39-vdty9fb7e7tWtkO-PeNZo7JuvWMuap16LVvtWs40xy7xTgi3SuVUJz8KxuPEhEFFd7vXeC31QfLroHO5pjxsryo0k2mPvtzpxjlAklheAnhuz7C4ut-rVAmc0UioNxtBHSUgxTqqG6rbV4Ato24mzqKaqCSik4Pau--wcd0pIj9sfUtOEcrTYtUvJCuZxKyeCvdTFqzjNkBnOdIXOeIUOVwRnCzO0lE7DjpwDZFBcgOuhCxt83XQr_1fgDcL_Vrg</recordid><startdate>20161101</startdate><enddate>20161101</enddate><creator>Dueri, Sibylle</creator><creator>Guillotreau, Patrice</creator><creator>Jiménez-Toribio, Ramón</creator><creator>Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo</creator><creator>Bopp, Laurent</creator><creator>Maury, Olivier</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier Science Ltd</general><general>Elsevier</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>1XC</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3083-1230</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-4953</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20161101</creationdate><title>Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies</title><author>Dueri, Sibylle ; Guillotreau, Patrice ; Jiménez-Toribio, Ramón ; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo ; Bopp, Laurent ; Maury, Olivier</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c476t-c4d493c1726a11f0f9569f691d3173fc8e7267cc68593ef124fe7569838b9bc53</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2016</creationdate><topic>Anthropogenic factors</topic><topic>Bioeconomic model</topic><topic>Biomass</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate effects</topic><topic>Commercial fishing</topic><topic>Continental interfaces, environment</topic><topic>Economic development</topic><topic>Economic factors</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Economics</topic><topic>Emissions</topic><topic>Environmental changes</topic><topic>Environmental impact</topic><topic>Environmental management</topic><topic>Ethics</topic><topic>Fisheries</topic><topic>Fisheries management</topic><topic>Fishery economics</topic><topic>Fishery management</topic><topic>Fishing</topic><topic>Food</topic><topic>Food prices</topic><topic>Food safety</topic><topic>Food security</topic><topic>Greenhouse effect</topic><topic>Greenhouse gases</topic><topic>Human influences</topic><topic>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</topic><topic>Katsuwonus pelamis</topic><topic>Management</topic><topic>Management decisions</topic><topic>Management development</topic><topic>MEY</topic><topic>MSY</topic><topic>Ocean models</topic><topic>Ocean, Atmosphere</topic><topic>Oceans</topic><topic>Overfishing</topic><topic>Profitability</topic><topic>Profits</topic><topic>Projections</topic><topic>Sciences of the Universe</topic><topic>Security</topic><topic>Skipjack tuna</topic><topic>Social aspects</topic><topic>Socioeconomic factors</topic><topic>Socioeconomics</topic><topic>Strategy</topic><topic>Sustainable yield</topic><topic>Thunnus</topic><topic>Trade</topic><topic>Tuna</topic><topic>World population</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Dueri, Sibylle</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Guillotreau, Patrice</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jiménez-Toribio, Ramón</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bopp, Laurent</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Maury, Olivier</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Hyper Article en Ligne (HAL)</collection><jtitle>Global environmental change</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Dueri, Sibylle</au><au>Guillotreau, Patrice</au><au>Jiménez-Toribio, Ramón</au><au>Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo</au><au>Bopp, Laurent</au><au>Maury, Olivier</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies</atitle><jtitle>Global environmental change</jtitle><date>2016-11-01</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>41</volume><spage>1</spage><epage>12</epage><pages>1-12</pages><issn>0959-3780</issn><eissn>1872-9495</eissn><abstract>•We project how climate change and fishery management strategies affect skipjack tuna fisheries (catches, prices and profits).•For 2050 and 2095 an increase of the global skipjack biomass is expected.•The eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to benefit from regional changes in biomass distribution.•A MEY strategy increases profits, but leads to low catches and high prices.•Key factors are: climate change, technological change and demand for tuna (driven by the population and economic growth).
We investigate the interactions between anthropogenic climate change, socioeconomic developments and tuna fishery management strategies. For this purpose, we use the APECOSM-E model to map the effects of climate change and commercial fishing on the distribution of skipjack tuna biomass in the three oceans, combined with a new bioeconomic module representing the rent or profit of skipjack fisheries. For forcing, we use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the highest emission scenario for greenhouse gas concentrations presented in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and the IPCC Socioeconomic Shared Pathway (SSP) 3, which is characterized by low economic development and a strong increase in the world population. We first investigate the impact of climate change on regional skipjack abundance, catches and profits in three oceans (Atlantic, Indian and Pacific) in 2010, 2050 and 2095. We then study the effects of three management strategies (maximum sustainable yield or MSY, maximum economic yield or MEY, and zero rent or ZR) on the future distribution of fishing fleets between oceans and on global economic rent.
Our model projections for 2050 and 2095 show an increase in global skipjack biomass compared to 2010 and major changes in its distribution, impacting local and regional fishing efforts. The Pacific Ocean will continue to dominate the skipjack market.
In our modeling of management strategies, the currently predominant MSY strategy would have been unprofitable in 2010, due to a decreased catch per unit effort (CPUE). In the future, however, technological developments should increase fishing efficiency and make MSY profitable.
In all the scenarios, a MEY strategy is more profitable than MSY but leads to the lowest catches and the highest prices. This raises ethical questions in a world where food security may become a top priority.
In the scenarios where MSY generates an economic loss (e.g. 2010), a ZR strategy allows global stocks to be exploited at high but still profitable levels. Conversely, in the scenarios where MSY is profitable, (e.g. 2095) ZR leads to overfishing and smaller global catches.
We conclude that the most appropriate management strategy at any time is likely to change as environmental and socioeconomic conditions evolve. The decision to follow one or other strategy is a complex one that must be regularly reviewed and updated.</abstract><cop>Oxford</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><doi>10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.003</doi><tpages>12</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3083-1230</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-4953</orcidid></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Global environmental change, 2016-11, Vol.41, p.1-12 |
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| source | ScienceDirect Journals (5 years ago - present) |
| subjects | Anthropogenic factors Bioeconomic model Biomass Climate change Climate effects Commercial fishing Continental interfaces, environment Economic development Economic factors Economic models Economics Emissions Environmental changes Environmental impact Environmental management Ethics Fisheries Fisheries management Fishery economics Fishery management Fishing Food Food prices Food safety Food security Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Human influences Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Katsuwonus pelamis Management Management decisions Management development MEY MSY Ocean models Ocean, Atmosphere Oceans Overfishing Profitability Profits Projections Sciences of the Universe Security Skipjack tuna Social aspects Socioeconomic factors Socioeconomics Strategy Sustainable yield Thunnus Trade Tuna World population |
| title | Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies |
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