Global disease spread: Statistics and estimation of arrival times
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows one to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we focus here on the computation of the arrival time of a disea...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of theoretical biology 2008-04, Vol.251 (3), p.509-522 |
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| container_title | Journal of theoretical biology |
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| creator | Gautreau, Aurélien Barrat, Alain Barthélemy, Marc |
| description | We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows one to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we focus here on the computation of the arrival time of a disease as a function of the properties of the seed of the epidemics and of the characteristics of the network connecting the various subpopulations. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we introduce an easily computable quantity which approximates this average arrival time. We show on the example of a disease spread on the world-wide airport network that this quantity predicts with a good accuracy the order of arrival of the disease in the various subpopulations in each realization of epidemic scenario, and not only for an average over realizations. Finally, this quantity might be useful in the identification of the dominant paths of the disease spread. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.12.001 |
| format | Article |
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| ispartof | Journal of theoretical biology, 2008-04, Vol.251 (3), p.509-522 |
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| source | MEDLINE; Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Collection |
| subjects | Aircraft Biometry - methods Communicable Disease Control Communicable Diseases, Emerging - transmission Complex networks Condensed Matter Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data Disease Transmission, Infectious Epidemiology Genetics Global Health Humans Life Sciences Physics Populations and Evolution Statistical Mechanics Stochastic Processes Travel World airport network |
| title | Global disease spread: Statistics and estimation of arrival times |
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