Probability of Health Ministers Leaving Office: A Survival Analysis for Turkey/ Saglik Bakanlarinin Gorevden Ayrilma Olasiligi: Turkiye Icin Bir Sagkalim Analizi

Objective: Although health systems and health policies differ from country to country, the Ministry of Health and the Minister of Health are generally responsible for the health policies in a country. They are responsible for the national health policies, strategies, and plans, which require time to be put in practice. It is difficult to realize these in the short term, and hence, the office tenure is important for ministers. This study aimed to calculate the probability of health ministers in Turkey leaving office in the last century. Material and Methods: We used the survival analysis method to calculate the probability of leaving office. We also used the life table method, in which the probability of leaving office was determined by equally dividing the time periods into 6 months. Results: According to the analysis, we calculated that the possibility of a health minister in Turkey leaving office in the first 6 months is 10.3%. The probability of leaving the Ministry of Health in the first 1 year increased by approximately 3.5 times and reached 34.5%. At the end of the first year, the probability of leaving office was calculated to be over 50%. Conclusion: For the continuity and sustainability of health policies, it is not desirable that the minister of health, who is at the top level of the health management, remains in office for a short time. Considering the recent years, Turkey has shown that the duration of the health ministers to remain in office and the probability of remaining in office is increasing accordingly. Keywords: Health system, Health Management, staying in office, survival analysis, Turkey Health Ministers Amac: Saglik sistemleri ve saglik politikalari ulkeden ulkeye farklilik gosterse de, genellikle bir ulkedeki saglik politikalarindan Saglik Bakanligi ve Saglik Bakani sorumludur. Saglik Bakanlari uygulamaya konulmasi icin zaman gerektiren ulusal saglik politikalarindan, stratejilerinden ve planlardan sorumludurlar. Kisa vadede bunlari gerceklestirmek zordur ve bu nedenle bakanlar icin gorev suresi onemlidir. Bu calisma, son yuzyilda Turkiye'deki saglik bakanlarinin gorevden ayrilma olasiligini hesaplamayi amaclamaktadir. Gerec ve Yontemler: Gorevden ayrilma olasiligini hesaplamak icin hayatta kalma analizi yontemi kullanildi. Ayrica, zaman dilimlerini esit olarak 6 aya bolerek gorevden ayrilma olasiliginin belirlendigi yasam tablosu yontemini kullanildi. Bulgular: Analize gore Turkiye'de bir saglik bakaninin ilk 6 ayda gorevden ayril