The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy
Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant fore...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Contemporary economic policy 2000-07, Vol.18 (3), p.284-294 |
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| container_end_page | 294 |
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| container_title | Contemporary economic policy |
| container_volume | 18 |
| creator | Gonzalez, JG Spencer, RW Walz, DT |
| description | Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant forecasting ability for the yield spread for segments of the Mexican economy during the 1995–1997 period of economic volatility. The actual and predicted variable changes sometimes conflict with those experienced by developed countries in part because of the unusually close relationship between the Mexican Treasury and the Banco de México. Consequently, analysts and policy officials may exploit the forecast potential of the yield spread, but only in the context of evolving institutional considerations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2000.tb00025.x |
| format | Article |
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| identifier | ISSN: 1074-3529 |
| ispartof | Contemporary economic policy, 2000-07, Vol.18 (3), p.284-294 |
| issn | 1074-3529 1465-7287 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_gale_infotracgeneralonefile_A63785398 |
| source | RePEc; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Business Source Complete |
| subjects | Economic development Economic forecasting Interest rates International economic relations Mexico |
| title | The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy |
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