Occurrence and role of virioplankton in a tropical estuarine system

Only a few studies have reported on viral dynamics in estuarine environments, and the factors regulating viral ecology are not well known. We herein aimed to address the factors controlling virus–host relationships in tropical estuaries. To accomplish this, we combine a historical data series (2011–2017), containing virus and prokaryote abundances, with environmental data from Guanabara Bay, Brazil. Water quality gradients and tides were found to regulate the structure of prokaryotic communities, and seasonal patterns added complexity to the dynamics of viral populations. Prediction models showed a balance between expected and recorded virus–host relationships. However, changes in virus-microbial ratio (VMR) were found in areas with microorganism increases and regions showing critical environmental changes. Our results demonstrated that VMR changes are multifactorial and cannot be associated with any specific factor. Neither Kill-the-Winner nor Piggyback-the-Winner models can predict VMR in a highly dynamic environment strongly influenced by eutrophication. In sum, it can be concluded that special care is necessary when analyzing models for predicting virus and host abundances, as ecological factors control host distribution and play a significant role in the virus–host relationship.