Projecting the future of Ayapel Cienaga: A hydroecologic analysis under climate change scenarios/Proyectando el futuro de la Cienaga de Ayapel: Analisis hidroecologico bajo escenarios de cambioclimatico

We developed a three-component model to evaluate the present and future hydrological behavior of Ayapel Cienaga under different scenarios of climate variability and human intervention associated with fishing and mining activities and the maintenance of levees. We calibrated the water balance with historical information on hydrological variables, water levels, stream discharges, fishing activities and gold mining records in the period 1985-2015. We use autoregressive statistical models to project climate scenarios that consider extreme variations in mean monthly rainfall, ENSO activity, temperature increases of 2[degrees]C, and levee breaks along the Cauca River. In addition, we incorporated two dynamic of systems models of bocachico fish population and mercury accumulation in the Cienaga. The simulations indicate that the Cienaga levels can be affected by extreme changes in rainfall associated with ENSO. The model estimates the fraction of water that could enter from the Cauca River due to levee breaks. Furthermore, using a fish dynamic population we could project the population and catch of bocachico. Finally, the mercury balance model due to mining in the region help to estimate mercury concentrations in water, fish and aquatic macrophytes matrices. This model offers a tool for management and decision-making in ecohydrological aspects of the Cienaga under different climate change scenarios. KEYWORDS: Hydrological model; climate scenarios; population balance; mercury model; Ayapel Cienaga Desarrollamos un modelo con tres componentes para evaluar el comportamiento hidrologico presente y futuro de La Cienaga de Ayapel bajo diferentes escenarios de variabilidad climatica e intervencion humana asociada con pesca y minena y el mantenimiento de diques. Calibramos el balance hfdrico con informacion historica sobre variables hidrologicas, niveles de agua, descargas de arroyos, actividades de pesca y registros de extraccion de oro en el penodo 1985-2015. Utilizamos modelos estadfsticos autorregresivos para proyectar escenarios climaticos que consideran variaciones extremas en la precipitacion media mensual, la actividad de ENSO, un aumento de temperatura de 2 [degrees]C y la ruptura de diques en el no Cauca. Ademas, incorporamos dos modelos de dinamica de sistemas de la poblacion de peces bocachico y la acumulacion de mercurio en la Cienaga. Las simulaciones indican que el nivel de Cienaga puede verse afectado por cambios extremos en las precipitaciones asociadas