Propensity and the Enlistment Decision. Technical Report 723

Enlistment intentions, educational expectations, and sociodemographic factors were examined in the context of their pairwise relationship to the enlistment decision. A model was developed relating enlistments to stated intentions and other variables. This model was then statistically estimated from a sample from the National Longitudinal Survey. Logistic regression was used to predict enlistments from information on intentions and backgrounds. Findings indicated that enlistees in the armed forces experienced an increase in educational expectations not reflected in the general population. A considerable shift was found among enlistees with respect to original enlistment intentions. Enlistment intentions or propensity was the strongest explanatory factor in predicting enlistment. Such factors as educational intentions, race, gender, and test score also contributed substantially (and independently of propensity) to explaining enlistment behavior. A positive change in propensity over time had a positive effect on enlistment probability above and beyond the effect of propensity measured at a single point in time. The effect of Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores on the probability of enlistment was positive, but the size of this effect diminished as AFQT increased. A desire for training beyond high school but outside of college was a good predictor of enlistment probability. (This report includes 36 figures illustrating study findings.) (YLB)