The Use of the Judgment Analysis Technique in Predicting Success in Graduate Education

Graduate schools must develop new criteria for identifying potentially talented individuals. Judgment analysis (JAN) uses a criterion of success, derived from the judgments of a group of experts, for graduate student selection. In considering a number of applicants for a position, a judge examines each applicant's scores for various profile variables or predictors relevant to a particular job. The judge studies the qualifications of each applicant and ranks each by means of an overall score or judgment. Each judgment thus becomes the applicant's criterion score for the set of profile items or dimensions used as predictors. The procedure results in a series of zero-order validity coefficients relating each individual predictor variable to the criterion. A computer analysis procedure reduces the number of judges, until all judges are grouped in a single cluster. Normative JAN and ipsative JAN, two variations of the JAN technique were studied. Normative JAN sought to determine the extent to which a policy regarding graduate admission standards existed among twenty representative faculty members. Each judge ranked the student on the basis of his profile variables. Ipsative JAN used for its criterion variable the judges' rankings or judgments based on personal knowledge as opposed to profile data information. (PS)