PREDICTING CAPACITY OF SHARED VIRTUAL MACHINE RESOURCES

Predicting capacity of shared virtual machine (VM) resources by generating estimated remaining capacities (ERCs) for computing clusters within a virtualization system rather than continuously monitoring actual remaining capacities (ARCs). Generating ERCs for a virtualization system's computing cluster(s) by using physical resource allocation flux data and/or VM type exchange probabilities provides benefits over continuously monitoring ARCs. The physical resource allocation flux data may correspond to commissioning and decommissioning VMs into the cluster and may be obtained during a blind period when current ARCs are unknown. For example, the physical resource allocation flux may be an indication of how many instances of each VM type are commissioned and/or decommissioned from the cluster over a time interval of interest. The VM type exchange probabilities may indicate a likelihood that commissioning or decommissioning a VM type into the computing cluster(s) will take up or free up computing resources available to other VM types, respectively.