System and method for estimating the most probable path of a vehicle travelling on a road

A system and a method are described for estimating the most probable path followed by a vehicle (V) on a road network including road sections (R, R'), originating from respective intersection or branching nodes (N; D), to which a travel probability is assigned, comprising: - a device (G) for acquiring a data element for locating the vehicle (V) on the road network; - a map (DB1, DB2) of the territory through which the road network passes, comprising data indicative of the corresponding designated use of a plurality of areas of territory (C; T) associated with the sections (R, R') of the road network; and - a processing unit (P) arranged to assign an improved travel probability to a road section (R; R'), originating from a road intersection or branching node (N; D), as a function of the designated use of the area of territory (C; T) associated with the aforesaid road section (R; R'), and to calculate the most probable path for the vehicle according to the improved probabilities assigned to the consecutive road sections, comprising a plurality of consecutive road sections originating in the intersection or branching node (N; D) approached by the vehicle (V) for which the joint travel probability is highest.