The invention relates to a dual-path adaptive load forecasting method for a substation supply area

The invention discloses a dual-path adaptive load forecasting method for a substation supply area. Due to the rapid change of grid structure in power network planning, it is often difficult to forecast the load of the upper and lower power supply areas. The invention adopts dual-path adaptive load forecasting compatible with top-level planning forecasting and bottom-level network self-checking. Atthe same time, the improved firefly algorithm and U-type self-calibration method are used to correlate the load status hierarchically. Combining the advantages of top-down and bottom-up load forecasting and distribution methods, the forecasting results are modified. The invention adopts two paths of load forecasting, distribution, checking and difference feedback back to the top layer for re-distribution, such as high-voltage distribution network supply area upward aggregation after self-forecasting and regional macro-forecasting downward distribution. After iteration, the error is smaller than the threshold value, a