A Computer-Aided Decision Structuring Process

As a result of a multiyear research effort conducted for the Operational Decision Aids Program of the Office of Naval Research, SRI International has developed a computer-assisted, step-by-step procedure for establishing the structure of a decision problem. The structuring process consists of three phases: preliminary structuring. modeling, and expansion. Steps in the preliminary structuring phase elicit the basic factors on which the decision will be based, including decision objectives, alternatives, and critical uncertainties. The modeling phase organizes these factors into a formal decision model whose analysis provides insights and assistance in the identification of a tentative decision strategy. The expansion phase refines the analysis of those areas of the model to which the decision is most sensitive. Aids for implementing the process, including an interactive computer program with graphics, have been developed and subjected to preliminary testing. (Author)