Agricultural and Forestry Biomass for Meeting the Renewable Fuel Standard: Implications for Land Use and GHG Emissions

Agricultural land and forestland are considered as two largest potential biomass sources for meeting the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandate for cellulosic biofuels. However, the land use change and greenhouse gas (GHG) savings with both agricultural and forest biomass production are yet to be examined systematically. This paper examines the effects of implementing a 16-billion gallon (60 billion liters) cellulosic biofuel mandate by 2035 on the mix of agricultural and forest biomass, land use change and GHG emissions by using a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural, forestry and transportation sectors in the US. Our results show that crop residues play a significant role in supplying cellulosic ethanol before 2030, while energy crops are the major feedstocks used for meeting the RFS cellulosic mandate after 2030. Milling and logging residues are economically viable supplements to agricultural biomass for cellulosic ethanol production, though their role in total biomass is small. Across different scenarios of cellulosic ethanol mandate that can be met with either agricultural biomass only or with both agricultural and forest biomass, we find GHG savings from displacing the gasoline range from 0.61 to 0.82 B MgCO2e over the 2015–2035 period. Induced land use change effects associated with expanded feedstock production are modest between and within the agricultural and forestry sectors. We conclude that a mixed feedstock base maximizes the economic and environmental benefits of cellulosic biofuel production. The mitigation potential of cellulosic biofuels is severalfold larger than natural-based solutions such as grassland restoration.