Modelling the population-level benefits and cost-effectiveness of cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine for children and adolescents aged 6 months to 17 years in the US

Cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc) can increase effectiveness against seasonal influenza by avoiding mismatch from egg adaption of vaccine viruses. This study evaluates the population-level cost-effectiveness and impacts on health outcomes of QIVc versus an egg-based vaccine (QIVe) in children aged 6 months to 17 years in the US. A dynamic age-structured susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model was used to simulate influenza transmission in low and high incidence seasons for two scenarios: 1. QIVe for 6 months-17 year-olds, QIVc for 18-64 year-olds, and adjuvanted QIV (aQIV) for ≥ 65 year-olds, and 2. QIVc for 6 months-64 year-olds, and aQIV for ≥ 65 year-olds. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to account for uncertainty in parameter estimates. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Extension of QIVc to children resulted in 3-4% reductions in cases (1,656,271), hospitalizations (16,688), and deaths (2,126) at a population level in a high incidence season, and 65% reductions (cases: 2,856,384; hospitalizations: 31667; deaths: 4,163) in a low incidence season. Use of QIVc would be cost-saving, with ICERs of -$16,427/QALY and -$8,100/QALY from a payer perspective and -$22,669/QALY and -$15,015/QALY from a societal perspective, for low and high incidence seasons respectively. Cost savings were estimated at approximately $468 million and $1.366 billion for high and low incidence seasons, respectively. Use of QIVc instead of QIVe in children > 6 months of age in the US would reduce the disease burden and be cost-saving from both a payer and societal perspective.