Seabird predation effects and population viability analysis indicate the urgent need for rat eradication from Europa Island, western Indian Ocean

Rats are among the worst invasive alien predators. They prey upon eggs, chicks, and sometimes adults of seabirds, leading to the decline of many populations. Rats have invaded 93% of the islands in the western Indian Ocean, which is an avian biodiversity hotspot. Europa Island, Mozambique Channel, is a major seabird breeding site, where at least 1,000,000 pairs bred at the end of 20th century, including the endemic white-tailed tropicbirds (Phaethon lepturus europae). This species and the red-tailed tropicbird (Phaethon rubricauda) are vulnerable to predation by black rat (Rattus rattus), barn owl (Tyto alba), and pied-crow (Corvus albus) on Europa Island. In this study, we estimate the current population sizes of these tropicbird species and their breeding success. The impact of predators on tropicbird nests was quantified with camera traps. Finally, we model the dynamics of these populations under three management scenarios (no action, complete rat eradication, and targeted control of rats around nests). In 2019, 1,027 pairs of red-tailed and 100 pairs of white-tailed tropicbirds bred on Europa Island, which indicates an annual decline of 5% and 17% since 2009, respectively. Breeding success of red-tailed tropicbirds and white-tailed tropicbirds was extremely low (0.08 ± 0.07 and 0.06 ± 0.03 respectively). Rats were detected at most surveyed nests and were the main predators of eggs and chicks. Pied-crows and barn owls also depredated nests occasionally. Population viability analysis projected a local extinction in 32–85 years for the red-tailed tropicbird, and in 11–50 years for white-tailed tropicbirds without conservation intervention. The complete eradication of rats would result in a rapid recovery of both populations. Rat control around nests only would result in population recovery only if 74% of the nests of white-tailed and 63% of the nests of red-tailed tropicbirds are free of rats.