An often-overestimated ecological risk of copper in Chinese surface water: bioavailable fraction determined by multiple linear regression of water quality parameters

Background Risks of adverse ecological effects of copper (Cu) consider of water quality parameters were not fully understood in China. Here, a national-scale exposure of Cu in Chinese surface water was investigated, and the first report using multiple linear regression approach to predict and correct toxicity data based on water chemistries in China. Risk of Cu was overestimated without considering water quality parameters in the previous studies. Results Under prevalent water quality conditions of hardness = 150.0 mg/L, pH = 7.8, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) = 3.0 mg/L, across China, the predicted no effect concentration for total, dissolved Cu was 9.71 μg/L. Based on results of the preliminary risk quotients method, 1.19% (a total of 43 in 3610 sites) were classified as “high risk”, only one sixth of the percentage of sites with “high risk” than the proportion predicted when not considering water quality parameters, which was 7.51%. Similar results were obtained by application of both the margin of safety method (0.71% compared to 2.81%) and joint probability curve method (3.34% compared to 16.29%), both of which overestimated risks posed by Cu to aquatic organisms in China. Conclusion After correcting for bioavailability based on water quality parameters, consider both concentrations and frequencies during ecological risk assessment, regions of China at greatest risk from adverse effects of Cu were the Hai River ( Haihe ), Huai Rivers ( Huaihe ) and Chao Lake. These findings provide a comprehensive method for a more accurate assessment of risks of adverse effects of Cu to aquatic life in surface waters.