Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and the Impact of Urban Roof Roughness on Precipitation during the “23.7” Extreme Rainstorm against the Background of Climate Warming

In July 2023, Baoding in Hebei Province experienced unprecedented torrential rainfall, breaking historical records and causing severe flooding. However, our understanding of the multi-scale circulation systems and physical mechanisms driving this extreme precipitation event remains incomplete. This study utilizes multi-source observational data and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model to conduct a weather diagnosis and numerical simulation of this extreme rainfall event, focusing on the impact of atmospheric rivers (ARS) and urban rooftop roughness on the precipitation process against the background of climate warming. The study found that this extremely heavy rainstorm occurred in the circulation background formed by the factors of subtropical high ectopics, typhoon residual vortex retention, double typhoon water-vapor transmission, and stable high-level divergence. The ARS provided abundant moisture, with its vapor pathway significantly altered following the landfall of Typhoon Doksuri. The interaction between the ARS and the Taihang Mountains was crucial in triggering and intensifying the rainstorm in the foothills. Urbanization significantly affected the distribution of precipitation, with moderate urban roughness enhancing rainfall in and around the city, whereas excessive roughness suppressed it. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind extreme precipitation under climate change and provide a scientific basis for improving the forecasting and mitigation of such events.