Coastal Pine-Oak Glacial Refugia in the Mediterranean Basin: A Biogeographic Approach Based on Charcoal Analysis and Spatial Modelling

During the glacial episodes of the Quaternary, European forests were restricted to small favourable spots, namely refugia, acting as biodiversity reservoirs. the Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsulas have been considered as the main glacial refugia of trees in Europe. In this study, we estimate the composition of the last glacial forest in a coastal cave of the Cilento area (SW Italy) in seven time frames, spanning from the last Pleniglacial to the Late Glacial. Charcoal analyses were performed in seven archaeological layers. Furthermore, a paleoclimate modelling (Maxent) approach was used to complement the taxonomic identification of charcoal fragments to estimate the past potential distribution of tree species in Europe. Our results showed that the mesothermophilous forest survived in this region in the core of the Mediterranean basin during the Last Glacial Period (LGP, since similar to 36 ka cal BP), indicating that this area played an important role as a reservoir of woodland biodiversity. Here, Quercus pubescens was the most abundant component, followed by a wide variety of deciduous trees andPinus nigra. Charcoal data also pointed at the crucial role of this coastal area, acting as a reservoir for warm temperate trees of generaTilia,CarpinusandSambucus, in LGP, in the Mediterranean region. Our modelling results showed thatP. nigramight be the main candidate as a "Pinus sylvestristype" in the study site in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, we found thatP. nigramight coexist with Q. pubescensin several European territories both currently and in the LGM. All models showed high levels of predictive performances. Our results highlight the advantage of combining different approaches such as charcoal analysis and ecological niche models to explore biogeographic questions about past and current forest distribution, with important implications to inform today's forest management and conservation.