Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal

Highlights • Onchocerciasis is earmarked for elimination in some African countries by 2020/2025. • 15+ years of ivermectin treatment drove infection prevalence to zero in areas of Mali & Senegal. • Data-driven model projections are used to evaluate the risk of infection resurgence. • Latent infections can initiate slow resurgence in communities with high transmission propensity. • Highly sensitive and long-term surveillance will be necessary to verify elimination.