On-farm evaluation of models to predict herbage intake of dairy cows grazing temperate semi-natural grasslands

•Adequate models to predict herbage intake of grazing dairy cows are needed.•None of the tested models predicted herbage intake of individual cows adequately.•No climate, management, or animal factor explained the remaining prediction bias.•Three models adequately predicted mean herbage intake of groups of cows.•Identified models can support decisions in farm management and extension services. The objective of the present on-farm study was to evaluate the adequacy of existing models in predicting the pasture herbage DM intake (PDMI) of lactating dairy cows grazing semi-natural grasslands. The prediction adequacy of 13 empirical and semi-mechanistic models, which were predominantly developed to represent stall-fed cows or cows grazing high-quality pastures, were evaluated using the mean bias, relative prediction error (RPE), and partitioning of mean square error of prediction, where models with an RPE ≤ 20% were considered adequate. The reference dataset comprised n = 233 individual animal observations from nine commercial farms in South Germany with a mean milk production, DM intake, and PDMI (arithmetic means ± one SD) of 24 kg/d, (±5.6), 21 kg/d (±3.2), and 12 kg/d (±5.1), respectively. Despite their adaptation to grazing conditions, the behaviour-based and semi-mechanistic grazing-based models had the lowest prediction adequacy among the evaluated models. Their underlying empirical equations likely did not fit the grazing and production conditions of low-input farms using semi-natural grasslands for grazing. The semi-mechanistic stall-based model Mertens II with slight modifications achieved the highest and a satisfactory modelling performance (RPE = 13.4%) when evaluated based on the mean observed PDMI, i.e., averaged across animals per farm and period (n = 28). It also allowed for the adequate prediction of PDMI on individual cows (RPE = 18.5%) that were fed