Testing the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA
This paper aims to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA using quarterly data for the period of 1981Q1- 2015Q1. To achieve this aim, the vector error correction (VEC) with cointegration, NARX (non-linear autoregressive exogenous) and ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzz...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Atlantic review of economics 2017, Vol.2 (1), p.1-19 |
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| description | This paper aims to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA using quarterly data for the period of 1981Q1- 2015Q1. To achieve this aim, the vector error correction (VEC) with cointegration, NARX (non-linear autoregressive exogenous) and ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) models are separately applied to strengthen this investigation. NARX and ANFIS, as artificial neural networks (ANN) models, were used for the first time in this study to test the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. It was found that the real exchange rate and income, as the independent variables, and the trade balance between Brazil and the USA, as the dependent variable, are cointegrated in the long-run. The empirical findings of all testing models examined in this study indicate that the J-curve hypothesis is not valid between Brazil and the USA. The real depreciations of the Brazilian currency do not make a positive contribution to the trade balance for Brazil. |
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To achieve this aim, the vector error correction (VEC) with cointegration, NARX (non-linear autoregressive exogenous) and ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) models are separately applied to strengthen this investigation. NARX and ANFIS, as artificial neural networks (ANN) models, were used for the first time in this study to test the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. It was found that the real exchange rate and income, as the independent variables, and the trade balance between Brazil and the USA, as the dependent variable, are cointegrated in the long-run. The empirical findings of all testing models examined in this study indicate that the J-curve hypothesis is not valid between Brazil and the USA. The real depreciations of the Brazilian currency do not make a positive contribution to the trade balance for Brazil.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2174-3835</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 2254-2558</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2174-3835</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>A Coruña: Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña</publisher><subject>ANFIS ; Brazil ; curve hypothesis ; Depreciation ; Developing countries ; Economic activity ; Economic models ; Error correction & detection ; Exports ; Fixed exchange rates ; Foreign exchange rates ; Hydrology ; Hypotheses ; International trade ; Investigations ; J-curve hypothesis ; LDCs ; NARX ; Neural networks ; Researchers ; Studies ; the USA ; Time series ; Trade deficit ; USA ; Validity ; VECM with cointegration</subject><ispartof>Atlantic review of economics, 2017, Vol.2 (1), p.1-19</ispartof><rights>Copyright Atlantic Review of Economics 2017</rights><rights>LICENCIA DE USO: Los documentos a texto completo incluidos en Dialnet son de acceso libre y propiedad de sus autores y/o editores. 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Any link to this document should be made using its official URL in Dialnet. More info: https://dialnet.unirioja.es/info/derechosOAI</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,870,4010</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Serdar, Ongan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hakan, Pabuçcu</creatorcontrib><title>Testing the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA</title><title>Atlantic review of economics</title><description>This paper aims to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA using quarterly data for the period of 1981Q1- 2015Q1. To achieve this aim, the vector error correction (VEC) with cointegration, NARX (non-linear autoregressive exogenous) and ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) models are separately applied to strengthen this investigation. NARX and ANFIS, as artificial neural networks (ANN) models, were used for the first time in this study to test the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. It was found that the real exchange rate and income, as the independent variables, and the trade balance between Brazil and the USA, as the dependent variable, are cointegrated in the long-run. The empirical findings of all testing models examined in this study indicate that the J-curve hypothesis is not valid between Brazil and the USA. The real depreciations of the Brazilian currency do not make a positive contribution to the trade balance for Brazil.</description><subject>ANFIS</subject><subject>Brazil</subject><subject>curve hypothesis</subject><subject>Depreciation</subject><subject>Developing countries</subject><subject>Economic activity</subject><subject>Economic models</subject><subject>Error correction & detection</subject><subject>Exports</subject><subject>Fixed exchange rates</subject><subject>Foreign exchange rates</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Hypotheses</subject><subject>International trade</subject><subject>Investigations</subject><subject>J-curve hypothesis</subject><subject>LDCs</subject><subject>NARX</subject><subject>Neural networks</subject><subject>Researchers</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>the USA</subject><subject>Time series</subject><subject>Trade deficit</subject><subject>USA</subject><subject>Validity</subject><subject>VECM with cointegration</subject><issn>2174-3835</issn><issn>2254-2558</issn><issn>2174-3835</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>FKZ</sourceid><recordid>eNpNj1tLAzEQhRdRsNT-BCHg88Lmstks-FKLl0pB0PY5JM2sTVmTmuxW1l9v2io4L2fO8J1h5iwbEVyxnApanv_rL7NJjNsiFaspoWSUzZcQO-veUbcBtFetNbYbkG-O_jlf92EPaDPsfPLRRqSh-wJw6C6ob9si5cyRXL1Nr7KLRrURJr86zlYP98vZU754eZzPpovcYC54bmqgIPQal4YbqDDlyhDGNCeKFtRo1hDNNSuBmIKXNRgsGg2cGMBUVRWh4-z2tNdY1Tro5C7YDxUG6ZWVf7Pe2WD9VkmIcvq6TA9jQgUpcYrfnOK74D_79Lzc-j64dLHEtWBVXXBxoK5PFKy9s1EeJHY-JAbXnNIfw55o5w</recordid><startdate>2017</startdate><enddate>2017</enddate><creator>Serdar, Ongan</creator><creator>Hakan, Pabuçcu</creator><general>Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña</general><general>Atlantic Review of Economics</general><scope>OT2</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>CLZPN</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>PYYUZ</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>AGMXS</scope><scope>FKZ</scope></search><sort><creationdate>2017</creationdate><title>Testing the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA</title><author>Serdar, Ongan ; Hakan, Pabuçcu</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-d1686-d9e3e8bc15d6de7136ad244b62a303db4f2b6b45e2d0659ed18fbe62de13a7723</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>ANFIS</topic><topic>Brazil</topic><topic>curve hypothesis</topic><topic>Depreciation</topic><topic>Developing countries</topic><topic>Economic activity</topic><topic>Economic models</topic><topic>Error correction & detection</topic><topic>Exports</topic><topic>Fixed exchange rates</topic><topic>Foreign exchange rates</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Hypotheses</topic><topic>International trade</topic><topic>Investigations</topic><topic>J-curve hypothesis</topic><topic>LDCs</topic><topic>NARX</topic><topic>Neural networks</topic><topic>Researchers</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>the USA</topic><topic>Time series</topic><topic>Trade deficit</topic><topic>USA</topic><topic>Validity</topic><topic>VECM with cointegration</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Serdar, Ongan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hakan, Pabuçcu</creatorcontrib><collection>EconStor</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>Latin America & Iberia Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection China</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Dialnet (Open Access Full Text)</collection><collection>Dialnet</collection><jtitle>Atlantic review of economics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Serdar, Ongan</au><au>Hakan, Pabuçcu</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Testing the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA</atitle><jtitle>Atlantic review of economics</jtitle><date>2017</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>2</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>1</spage><epage>19</epage><pages>1-19</pages><issn>2174-3835</issn><issn>2254-2558</issn><eissn>2174-3835</eissn><abstract>This paper aims to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA using quarterly data for the period of 1981Q1- 2015Q1. To achieve this aim, the vector error correction (VEC) with cointegration, NARX (non-linear autoregressive exogenous) and ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) models are separately applied to strengthen this investigation. NARX and ANFIS, as artificial neural networks (ANN) models, were used for the first time in this study to test the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. It was found that the real exchange rate and income, as the independent variables, and the trade balance between Brazil and the USA, as the dependent variable, are cointegrated in the long-run. The empirical findings of all testing models examined in this study indicate that the J-curve hypothesis is not valid between Brazil and the USA. The real depreciations of the Brazilian currency do not make a positive contribution to the trade balance for Brazil.</abstract><cop>A Coruña</cop><pub>Colegio de Economistas de A Coruña</pub><tpages>19</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | ANFIS Brazil curve hypothesis Depreciation Developing countries Economic activity Economic models Error correction & detection Exports Fixed exchange rates Foreign exchange rates Hydrology Hypotheses International trade Investigations J-curve hypothesis LDCs NARX Neural networks Researchers Studies the USA Time series Trade deficit USA Validity VECM with cointegration |
| title | Testing the validity of the J-curve hypothesis between Brazil and the USA |
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