Modelling Neanderthal Extinction — abridged version

Neanderthals, throughout their existence, occupied a vast territory between Europe and Asia. Their rather rapid extinction coincided with the arrival of Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH) in Europe. Although the causes of Neanderthal extinction have yet to be established, there are several hypotheses, researchers favouring the one in which AMH competed for resources with Neanderthals, who were at a disadvantage. To understand Neanderthal demography, this paper presents different models for the last 15,000 years preceding their disappearance. Different scenarios were tested using data available from the scientific literature. The results indicate that Neanderthals should have survived, and therefore, that the scenarios modelled are “unlikely” since we know that they did not. Consequently, either the scenarios modelled have not been correctly constructed or the values used are not close enough to reality. Accordingly, the values of the demographic parameters that could have determined the extinction of the Neanderthals were identified. For Neanderthals to disappear in 15,000 years, their fertility would have had to decrease and their mortality would have had to increase sharply. The arrival of AMH does not seem to be the only factor capable of influencing Neanderthal population dynamics.