Predicting Agriculture Sustainability in Subak Pulagan as World Cultural Landscape of Bali: Bayesian Networks Approach

Subak is a farmers' organization as an institution managing rice farming irrigation in Bali which has been around for thousands of years. Subak reflects the philosophical concept of Tri Hita Karana which unites the spirit world, the human world and nature. Subak Pulagan is one of five sites in Bali designated by United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as a world cultural landscape. The aim of this research is to identify key factors for agricultural sustainability in Subak Pulagan in terms of various institutional (people), profit and environmental (planet) components. The analysis technique uses a Bayesian network, where data was previously collected through Focus Group Discussion (FGD). The results of the analysis show that the opportunity for agricultural sustainability in Subak Pulagan is quite high. If we look at the three pillars of sustainability, if ‘profit’ is in maximum condition, it can provide the greatest opportunity to realize sustainable agriculture. If viewed from institutions (the role of government and the role of Subak), the possibility of sustainable agriculture will increase if these two institutions are also optimized. So farmer welfare (profit component) must be pursued, including through agricultural institutions. Incentive assistance through the transmission of land and building taxes, fertilizer, access to capital, and agricultural insurance are forms of incentives that the government can pursue.