Where Is the Early Market for PHEVs?

The relative fuel consumption reduction strengths of multiple passenger car powertrains are investigated. These include [A] conventional compression ignition (CI) direct injection (DI) turbocharged (TC) diesel (D) [CI-DI-TC-D]; [B] Atkinson cycle charge sustaining (CS) “split-hybrid” electric vehicles (HEV) fueled by gasoline/petrol (G) [HEVG]; plug-in (P) hybrid gasoline/petrol [PHEVG)]; and indirect fuel injected (IDI) spark-ignited (SI) internal combustion engines (ICE) fueled by gasoline/petrol [SI-IDI-NA-G]. When we use simulation to evaluate the behavior of PHEVG powertrains, the size is a four-to-five passenger car platform that would be regarded as “compact” in the U.S. and standard in Europe. A careful distinction between probable driving patterns for PHEVGs when in charge-depletion (CD) mode vs. charge sustaining (CS) operation is made. Effects of variation in the amount of kWh storage and the CD strategy, between PHEVs with varying km of electric-equivalent range are also investigated. The effect of electric drive (battery and motor) power (kW) on ability of a vehicle to operate all-electrically, relative to its ability to reduce oil use, is examined. Four degrees of hybridization are briefly examined, including stop-start (SS), integrated starter-generator (ISG), mild parallel (MP), and full parallel (FP). Each of the parallel PHEVs examined is an FP. Powertrain model simulations and limited dynamometer test results for such PHEVGs are compared to the other vehicle types for certification and “on-road” driving cycles from Europe and the U.S. It is illustrated that the conventional wisdom that HEVG has significant superiority over CG primarily in urban stop and go driving should not automatically be extended to PHEVGs. The driving cycle information is related to systematically varying consumer patterns of dwelling choice and vehicle use in cities, suburbs, and rural areas, as well as across nations. Effects of fuel taxation choices by nation — for gasoline, diesel and electric fuel — are investigated. The effects that residential location and type, driving cycle, and fuel cost have on the relative marketability of the studied powertrains, when initially entering the market, are summarized. The sequence of events leading to early emergence of original equipment automaker production and marketing of PHEVGs is discussed.