Geological hazards on the territory of Russia: their distribution and development prediction

The article deals with the regularities of distribution of manifestations of dangerous geological processes on the territory of Russia and the issues of their reliable forecast. It is demonstrated that local forecast of dangerous processes development is always directed to a specific object, phenomenon or group of phenomena within limited territories and implies the calculation of some parameter characterizing the stability of the soil massif, for which a certain calculation model is necessarily applied. And the success of the forecast depends on the quality of this model and the reliability of the experimental parameters entered into it. In deterministic calculation, the variability of causes causing the process is obviously or unobviously neglected in order to minimize the number of possible consequences. In the probabilistic variant, more possible combinations of acting factors are usually considered by enumeration. Unfortunately, it cannot be claimed that this increases the reliability of calculations, since the key point is the quality of the calculation model used and the consideration of the heterogeneity of the environment.