Linking northern fur seal dive behavior to environmental variables in the eastern Bering Sea

Northern fur seals ( Callorhinus ursinus ) breeding on the Pribilof Islands, Alaska have declined dramatically over the past 40 years. Effective conservation of northern fur seals depends on understanding the foraging behavior of adult females whose foraging success is linked to pup survival. We determined the foraging behavior for 11 tagged lactating female northern fur seals from the Pribilof Islands using a state-space modeling approach with an autoregressive movement model. To interpret at-sea behavior in the context of oceanic habitat, we spatially and temporally matched high-resolution reconstructed tracks to a set of environmental covariates that included: commercial groundfish catch, sea surface temperature, primary productivity, wind speed, depth and time of day. We used a Bayesian hierarchical framework to implement a multinomial regression model to link behavior to environmental covariates and account for the mismatch of scale between fur seal behavior and the environmental variables by incorporating an error-in-covariates approach into the hierarchical model. The Bayesian framework allowed us to build a single model to synthesize the information from all the northern fur seal foraging tracks and the available information about the underlying environmental conditions. Application of the approach indicated that the behavioral states for the northern fur seal were significantly related to the Alaska commercial groundfish catch, particularly walleye pollock ( Gadus chalogramma ).